Sitemap - 2026 - Capital Flows and Asset Markets

THE TREAURY BUYBACK IS TOO SMALL

OBSERVATIONS ON CURRENCIES

WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE YEN? PART 2

WHAT TO DO ABOUT YEN?

IS IT THE END OF THE ROAD FOR GLD/TLT?

DO RISING YIELDS ACTUALLY AFFECT STOCKS?

Chapter 8 - Competition Driven Shorts Beat Macro Shorts

WTF? WAFERS, TOO FAR?

AUGUST REVIEW

IS IT TIME TO SHORT SELL?

日本が米国債について教えてくれること

WHAT JAPAN TELLS US ABOUT US TREASURIES

THE PROBLEM WITH SUBSTACK

TIME FOR BITCOIN?

NOT THE BEGINNING OF THE END, BUT PROBABLY THE END OF BEGINNING

Chapter 7 - In a Bull Market, the Most Bullish Wins. In a Bear Market the Most Bearish Wins.

THE CREDIT MARKETS PUZZLE ME - BUT EQUITIES PUZZLE ME MORE

WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH THE YEN INTERVENTION?

CONFIRMED - SEMIS ARE THE NEW OIL

IT FINALLY MIGHT BE TIME

MACRO AND JAPAN

JULY UPDATE

GETTING DOWN TO THE HEART OF THE AI TRADE

SHOULD YOU SHORT MEMORY STOCKS?

HYPERSCALER COST OF CAPITAL IS RISING - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

WHAT DO AUTOCALLABLES SAY ABOUT THE KOSPI AND THE NIKKEI

WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN HEDGE FUND MANAGERS ARE WRONG?

IS THE GREAT SEMICODUCTOR BEAR MARKET UPON US?

HOW CLEARINGHOUSES PRICE RISK

PROBABLY TIME TO GET BEARISH

GLT/TLT AGAIN?

WHAT DRIVES SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS?

6 - Strategy is How You Compensate for Natural Disadvantages

FROM THE ARCHIVE - JAPANESE SELF CONSUMING REITS

IS US ENERGY POLICY A DEAD END?

IS THE AI TRADE DONE - PART 2

IS THE AI TRADE DONE?

MEMORY AND WAFER UPDATE

FROM THE ARCHIVE - IS GOLD BUYING A LEADING INDICATOR OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS?

FROM THE ARCHIVE - PEAK OIL PRICE

GATES, PRIVATE CREDIT AND ME

FROM THE ARCHIVES!

MY READ OF THE AI TRADE

IS IT FINALLY TIME FOR THE TREASURY MARKET TO CRACK?

HOW DO MARKETS TOP? HAS THE US TOPPED OUT?

TRACKING CHINA RETAIL GOLD FLOWS

JUNE UPDATE

A BETTER LEAD ON GOLD PRICE

5 - Markets are Always Sending a Signal; You Just May Not Be Ready to Receive It

THE AI BULL AND BEAR CASE FOR DUMMIES

MORE THOUGHTS ON GLD/TLT AND A CLARIFICATION ON FOOD INFLATION

RED PILL/BLUE PILL TIME..... AGAIN

IT'S PROBABLY TIME TO PUT THE WEAK DOLLAR TRADE ON AGAIN

LEVERAGED ETFS WILL BE A PROBLEM

WHERE TO FROM HERE - PART II

MOST OF THE BIG CALLS HAVE BEEN RIGHT - SO WHERE TO FROM HERE? PART I

QUANTUM COMPUTING AND BULL MARKETS

THE ECONOMIST, CLEARINGHOUSES AND GLD/TLT

PASSIVE AND GOLD

IS THERE A PROBLEM WITH GOLD?

4 - If You Don’t Trust the Currency, Don’t Trust the Market

AI AND THE RISING COST OF CAPITAL

WHAT'S GOING ON?

SHOULD I SWITCH FROM GOLD TO COPPER?

IS FERTILITY DECLINING BECAUSE WE DON'T NEED HUMANS FOR LABOUR ANYMORE?

MAY UPDATE

IS GLD/TLT DONE?

IS THE PRO-LABOUR TRADE WORKING?

WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH SOFTBANK?

SPACEX, COST OF CAPITAL AND AI

3 - Capital Flows Create Their Own Bull Market

REASON 314 OF WHY YOU SHOULD READ THE ECONOMIST BACKWARDS

TLT IS FINALLY WORKING - SHOULD I DITCH GLD?

SOFTBANK, YOU ARE THE WEAKEST LINK. GOODBYE.

TRYING TO PRICE TOTAL AI MARKET

IS SOFTBANK THE SOFT FLANK OF AI?

2 - Markets Are Driven by Politics, Not Economics

"IT'S ONLY WAFER THIN" - "ALRIGHT THEN, BUY ME SOME WAFER STOCKS"

GOLD FOR BITCOIN?

MAYBE FOOD INFLATION IS THE KEY

APRIL UPDATE

UPDATE - BOOK AND SLICE

1 - OUTSIDER TRADING

THE POLITICS OF TLT

INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

THOUGHTS ON THE AI BOOM

RED PILL / BLUE PILL TIME!

DO WE NEED HEDGE FUNDS?

IS TLT STILL A SHORT?

STRATEGY UPDATE

THE MARKETS AND AI

THE GAYS OF HORMUZ

LAST CALL FOR INVESTOR DAY - APRIL 23RD

EASTER ESSAY - THE DEINSTITUTIONALISATION OF SOCIETY

STRATEGY UPDATE

IS GOLD GOING TO GET THE BITCOIN TREATMENT?

MARCH NEWSLETTER

CENTRAL BANKS ONLY FEAR FOOD INFLATION

THE IRAN WAR - WHAT'S THE ENDGAME?

FED RATES TO 7%?

MORE THOUGHTS ON GLD/TLT AND WAR IN IRAN

COST OF CAPITAL TRADE OR ENERGY SECURITY TRADE?

GOLD IS A DISTRACTION

GLD/TLT IS ACTUALLY DOING WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO

WAR! GLD/TLT WHAT IS GOOD FOR? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING

PUTTING ON A FEW MORE TRADES

I HATE THE "DUMB TRUMP" TRADE

ANSWERING THE CURRENCY RIDDLE

STRATEGY UPDATE

TIDYING UP THE SHORT BOOK

IS IT REALLY DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

THE MARKET ALWAYS KNOWS - IRAN VERSION

WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING IN ASIA?

EXCITING TIMES!

FEBRUARY REVIEW

APRIL 23RD - SAVE THE DATE - INVESTOR DAY

THE ANATOMY OF A FAILED SHORT

SHOULD I CUT THE SHORT BOOK?

SO CHINA IS STILL BUYING TREASURIES?

THE CHANGING NATURE OF MARKETS AND SHORT SELLING

CAN AI BE A BUBBLE LIKE THE DOT COM BUST?

CURRENCIES AND BEAR P@RN

PRIVATE EQUITY AND SOFTWARE

DO I LIKE EMERGING MARKETS HERE?

IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER? PART II

IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER?

BRUMBY, EUROHEDGE AND ME

WHAT TO DO ABOUT JAPAN?

PRO-LABOUR? OR CAPITAL SCARCITY? DOES IT MATTER?

GOLD AND BITCOIN

A LONG IDEA TO PAIR WITH A SHORT IDEA

WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING WITH KOREAN VOLATILITY?

JANUARY REVIEW

MY PRECIOUS!

TRADING THE REACTION - PUTTING ON A SHORT

IS PASSIVE REALLY THE BAD GUY?

DEATH OF THE BOND MARKET - A FOUR PART MOVEMENT

JUNKIER IN THE TRUNKIER

IS IT TIME?

VALUING AI

BEWARE IMPERSONATORS

PUTTING ON THE TRADER HAT

ME, MYSELF, AI

WHAT DRIVES CURRENCIES?

WHAT IS TRUMP'S PLAN?

WHAT I LEARNT FROM TAKING THE KIDS TO JAPAN

DECEMBER REVIEW