Calling a top in semiconductors has been a tough gig for nearly ten years now. I thought 2018 was a top and was wrong. 2022 was a head fake too, and was 2025 Deepseek sell off. But here we are again, with the SOX down 20% from a peak in June.
The bull market in semis is very easy to understand. Pricing power has been phenomenal. TSMC, which I have been covering for 20 years, has been able to push prices up massively over the last few years. The only other time this happened was the dot com bubble.
As of today, we are seeing a very big fall in leading memory stocks. SK Hynix, which recently listed ADRs, is now down 50% from its peak. Amazingly, it is still above its 200MDA.
So was that the top? I see two different explanations for current price action.
