I have preferred gold to bitcoin for awhile. Theoretically, they should be the same - scarce assets that should rise as investors worry about debasement. The debasement trade is easy to understand. The US is forecast to run 7% of GDP deficits for as far as the eye can see.
And yet the market is only going to pay you 4.4% a year to lend to the US government for 10 years. Somewhere closer to 10% feels right to me.
For the past 4 years or so, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent freezing of Russian foreign reserves, I have preferred gold to long dated treasuries - GLD/TLT. It has been good, but during the ongoing war with Iran it has fallen some 14%.
In contrast while bitcoin has been very volatile over the last 5 years, it has rallied 28% from recent lows. Does it make sense to switch from gold to bitcoin?
