As mentioned in a recent post, I have liked gold since 2022, because when Russian foreign reserves were frozen, I assumed most central banks would stop buying treasuries, and start buying gold. Data has confirmed this view as correct.
If central bank buying was the only variable, then there would be no reason to be particularly bearish on gold. Looking at shares outstanding in GLD, the biggest gold ETF, retail did not seem that frenzied in their buying.
Buy going through the data on the World Gold Council website - Chinese retail went bonkers for gold bars in Q1 this year. At 200 tonnes, Chinese retail alone bought more than all central banks in Q1.
I also realised the Bloomberg measure of total gold ETF holdings did not include Chinese Gold ETFs. Given the above, I thought I should try and get a better idea of Chinese retail gold flows, both physical and ETFs if I was going to judge gold price risk accurately.
