I like to think I am smart - and I am smart enough to know that I am not smarter than the market. Generally speaking, I like to get an idea of where we going, and then bet WITH the market on that direction. So before I get to individual trades (and the paywall), let me look at the overall market trends. As mentioned in an early post today, I still like ROW v S&P 500. This is back at 200MDA - so corrective reversal - implying good to short US, and buy non-US.
GLD/TLT has been a phenomenal trade - but is at least back to its 50DMA. In a rising oil market, hard to see this fall too much.
It looked very overbought in January, now looks more reasonable. This is the MACD function on Bloomberg. Lower chart gives an idea of how far from trend you are.
Gold is still outperforming vs S&P 500. It is still a long way from 200MDA.
That being said, on a long time horizon, when this breaks higher you don’t really want to get too cute with it.
Finally, my lodestar - Japanese 30 Year bond yields still look to be moving higher.
So what trades have I put on?
