Capital Flows and Asset Markets
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5 - Markets are Always Sending a Signal; You Just May Not Be Ready to Receive It
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5 - Markets are Always Sending a Signal; You Just May Not Be Ready to Receive It

There are always signs

Chapter 5 of my book - other chapters are here.

Even now, I find it hard to believe. When I started getting involved in financial markets in the early 2000s, everyone would tell me how equities always outperform bonds. And I would then point out how the Nikkei Index had spent 20 years falling 80%, while at the same time Japanese 10 year bonds had fallen from 8% to well below 1% - delivering a hugely positive return. In other words, Japan had proven the exact opposite, with bonds hugely outperforming equities

I still remember reading respected strategists calling the 4% yield on the 10 year JGBs in 1994 as the greatest short of all time (extremely wrong). What I found most staggering about this is that both Japanese equities and Japanese bonds were sending exactly the same signal - deflation. And yet, almost everyone in the market was not ready to receive this signal.

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