When I look at the politics in the West, it still seems wildly inflationary to me. Trump re-election implies tariffs, more defence spending, and little to no austerity. For me the risk is that long long dated treasuries sell off as they did in 2022.
My favourite lead market, the 30 Year JGB market continues to relentless push to new highs, in stark contrast to the behaviour before 2020.
Trump re-election, French and German politics, and ongoing War in Ukraine and Middle East are all inflationary. The potential for trade wars, and so far well behaved commodity markets all point to stimulus, and I had assumed China would conduct stimulus as it did in 2017 after Trump was elected the first time. Instead, Chinese bond yields have collapsed.
