As part of my launch of Brumby Capital - I spent two days in NYC meeting a selection of subscribers and ex-investors. Now you would think that these trips would be all about raising capital. And they are - but I take a longer view on these things. If I tell people what I think is going to happen - and how I plan to make money from it - then when their own thinking comes to match mine - then I am the first person they call.
But there is something else about these trips… and why they have to be done face to face. Something ephemeral. And in homage to Donald Trump - something we can call the “Art of the Short” ( I watched the Donald Trump biopic - The Apprentice - on the flight over).
What is the Art of the Short? So when you have a bearish thesis (in this case we are moving to an era of capital scarcity) the ideal response from potential investors is for only a very select few to give you capital. When everyone gives you capital - then everyone has already accepted the thesis, and there is no more juice to squeeze from the trade. And so far so good I would say… some interest but not overwhelming (note when their is overwhelming interest - that will be a sign to return capital).
But a good part of going to meet people face to face is to get an idea of how people are doing on an emotional level. What truth they are struggling to accept - that market action will eventually have to force them to accept.
