It has been a tumultuous couple of weeks. I will make some general observations to start, and then some market observations behind the paywall at the end.
American First politics in practice, particular in regards to Ukraine, but with the application of tariffs as well, has probably ended the various independence movements in developed countries. From where I sit, no sane Quebecker, Welsh, Scottish, Flemish or Catalonian person can think being a small nation in this new world makes sense.
In all likelihood, all real changes caused by Brexit, are likely to be reversed, in practice, if not name.
The beginning of the end of the US as a reserve currency
The beginning of the end of the preferential treatment given to US corporates in terms of tax and market access, even if negotiations to reduce tariffs are successful.
Bond markets are correctly (in my view) signally reflation, while equities seem to think deflation
Probably the only lasting change from this Trump administration will be the remilitarisation of Europe and Japan, and the corresponding weakening of the US as the leading military power.
The FT reported the head of the British Military was in Beijing - this was not announced by the UK government, but reported by Chinese media. This is the first time this has happened in 10 years. Is the UK looking to do a deal with China? Or acting as a go between? Perhaps the US is not the only nation capable of pulling geo-political surprises.
