I spent most of July on the road in Europe. 11 days in Sweden, karting with my oldest son and then 9 days in Portugal with the entire family on a bit of rest and recreation. I try and avoid coffee when I am on holidays, and I find it allows me to think more clearly, if more slowly.
Markets are heavily politicised these days, in both that government policy affects markets, and that the dominant companies in markets are affecting policy. For that reason, July was a tricky month politically. The failed assassination made Trump look like a shoe in for the 2024 election, but then Biden stepping down has changed the political calculation dramatically. If Harris wins, would she copy Biden economic policies completely? Probably is my guess - but it does add uncertainty.
My key trade GLD/TLT continued to move sideways over the month.
