I am thinking of being in NY on 25 and 26th March. If you would like a meeting, drop me a line and I can see what I can do.
In case you have been under a rock this month, US markets have finally sold off, while “emerging market” assets have done alright. Aggressive traders who took on the long China tech, short US tech trade have been hugely rewarded this year, with a 50% move already, and miles to run before we get back to old highs.
I can see the merits of this trade - politically China is moving pro-tech, while the US and its new love of tariffs and hate for until recently close allies (what exactly has Canada done wrong again?). While President Trump is obviously going easy on Russia, is the same true for China? Who knows. But we have also quietly seen a break higher in gold vs S&P 500. Even moving back to the recent high in 2011 implies a 300% move.
Just looking at the last five years we can see it has tried to break this level a few times, but this time it is moving higher.
Things like gold and technology always have a bit of Rorschach test about them in my view. You see what you want to see. But from a more hard headed financial perspective, US assets are looking expensive.
