What indicators are you using? From what I see, trucking volumes/activity indices have been sideways to down in recent quarters which I find worrying for "main street" health.
I believe most of the trucking index numbers in there serve better as lagging rather than leading indicators. At least this is what Craig Fuller of FreightWaves has said in the past. The trucking industry has been going through its own recession, but it looks like we may be at a bottom.
But as he contends, a recession could derail things quickly, but it seems more like that would come from elsewhere rather than trucking being the signal this time around -
well, I can't help but wonder what will happen if inflation does not continue to decline, but has found a new base at 3% for CPI, 2.5% for PCE. certainly that won't prevent the fed from cutting, but I cannot believe it will help the long end, that's for sure
Remember the end of last year, when the markets 'priced in' a total of six rate cuts this year? So far zero of those cuts have materialized.
The market (T-bills and Fed Funds futures) has a terrible track record of predicting FFR moves.
Economic theory would predict the extinction of economist on the basis of being useless, and yet they survive
Is the US economy in a recession?
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/is-us-economy-in-recession?r=1r1n6n
A bull or a bear steepener though?
I’m also interested in this. Seems like a bear. It might look like an initial bull when the fed cuts in September but then growth could reignite.
my view as well.
Good insights
If jobs/unemployment are lagging indicators, then inferring the poor data is contained with business/technology sectors may be premature
True - but leading indicators have not confirmed either!
What indicators are you using? From what I see, trucking volumes/activity indices have been sideways to down in recent quarters which I find worrying for "main street" health.
https://yardeni.com/charts/ata-trucking-index/ and other LEIs dont appear robust
Also:
https://product.datastream.com/dscharting/gateway.aspx?guid=65b03e76-a714-47d4-8b75-2bfd37e737ef&action=REFRESH
Credit spreads are the most obvious ones
Confluence of factors have kept spreads compressed, they're a lagging indicator now because:
1. covid saw significant refinancing (which 5yrs on, in a much higher rate environment, is seeing refi risk now gradually rise)
2. covenant light lending has made it easier to "muddle through"
3. the rise of private credit has distorted things
Lots of event risk ahead:
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240205-credit-trends-global-refinancing-maturity-wall-looms-higher-for-speculative-grade-debt-12991317
I believe most of the trucking index numbers in there serve better as lagging rather than leading indicators. At least this is what Craig Fuller of FreightWaves has said in the past. The trucking industry has been going through its own recession, but it looks like we may be at a bottom.
NA Container Imports suggests a bullish outlook -
https://x.com/FreightAlley/status/1813715872537530538
But as he contends, a recession could derail things quickly, but it seems more like that would come from elsewhere rather than trucking being the signal this time around -
https://x.com/FreightAlley/status/1819672055769362768
Feels very macro. Yen and Israel/Iran.
Very policy driven I think
I am super engaged with this topic
Its a surprising number
Its only when you get market volatility do you get to really put your theories to the test
bold call for a steepener today!
I look at the 30 v 10 spread. At 30bps looks way too low
well, I can't help but wonder what will happen if inflation does not continue to decline, but has found a new base at 3% for CPI, 2.5% for PCE. certainly that won't prevent the fed from cutting, but I cannot believe it will help the long end, that's for sure
Well Trump still looks the likely winner - so owning a 30 year yielding 4% as 10% tariffs and tax cuts get implemented strikes me as odd