Credit spreads are the most obvious ones
Confluence of factors have kept spreads compressed, they're a lagging indicator now because:
1. covid saw significant refinancing (which 5yrs on, in a much higher rate environment, is seeing refi risk now gradually rise)
2. covenant light lending has made it easier to "muddle through"
3. the rise of private credit has distorted things
Lots of event risk ahead:
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240205-credit-trends-global-refinancing-maturity-wall-looms-higher-for-speculative-grade-debt-12991317
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Credit spreads are the most obvious ones
Confluence of factors have kept spreads compressed, they're a lagging indicator now because:
1. covid saw significant refinancing (which 5yrs on, in a much higher rate environment, is seeing refi risk now gradually rise)
2. covenant light lending has made it easier to "muddle through"
3. the rise of private credit has distorted things
Lots of event risk ahead:
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240205-credit-trends-global-refinancing-maturity-wall-looms-higher-for-speculative-grade-debt-12991317