September was a long month - but a satisfying month. It proved, to my mind at least, that political analysis is superior to old school analysis. First and foremost in this was the merit of GLD/TLT. I think many “investors” and “macro commentators” find it much easier to go all in on debasement trades. But politically I found it much more difficult. There is always the chance that politics or circumstances forced central banks and governments to run much tighter money than expected. When gold was surging last year and early this year, I did say I felt it was time for the short TLT side of this trade to exert itself. And over the last few months it has.
Gold and other precious metals have and remain lacklustre. But that’s the whole point of GLD/TLT - you can only jump and shout about debasement IF yields are not rising. I know logical and rational thought is at a premium these days (Donald Trump and Elon Musk rallying against the establishment strikes me as odd, when one is the most powerful politician on the planet, and the other is the richest man on the planet - if they are not establishment - then who is? If establishment is holding them back, then how are they so powerful and rich? Like I said logical thought is at a premium these days).
