The key trade of GLD/TLT continues to trade well.
I originally posited that this trade would be due to a political reaction to excess of pro-capital policies, and politicians would be forced to adopt pro-labour policies. This would lead to higher wages, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and falling asset prices in real terms. Following this line of thinking, speculative assets would struggle. But with assets like crypto and listed private equity soaring to new all time highs, this analysis seems wrong.
One possibility is that only China has moved pro-labour, and this is enough to cause GLD/TLT to trade positively, but the rest of the world remains pro-capital. I did think that China moving pro-labour would force the rest of the world to follow, but this seems to be taking longer than expected.
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