This bull market resembles the dot-com bubble, which collapsed with oil prices well-below the highs hit at the start of the eighties and nineties. In any case, in your previous post you pointed out that the inventory of drilled uncompleted wells in the US has drawn down to the lowest level in nearly 10 years...
Great article as always, Russell. I am sensing a blind spot however with respect to your understanding of whether the US is actually equipped to slow down inflation back to <2% for any sustainable measure of time (5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc.), due to the total national debt outstanding, increasing size of annual deficits (which are forecasted to increase still further), and the corresponding increase in interest expense.
At some point, it seems to me that it won't matter whether an administration "wishes" to keep inflation down, as that goal will directly conflict with their mandate to "not say no" to the electorate, as you keenly observed.
Merry Christmas to you and yours, and happy holidays to everyone
I think everywhere "needs" inflation - particular wage inflation. It makes political sense to me - and GLD/TLT was saying put the trade on. But with all things political, this can change... so I am always a bit nervous!
My own two cents on why I agree with your gold view. Thanks Russell.
https://open.substack.com/pub/macrogold/p/its-time-to-talk-about-gold?r=g7ty&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
This bull market resembles the dot-com bubble, which collapsed with oil prices well-below the highs hit at the start of the eighties and nineties. In any case, in your previous post you pointed out that the inventory of drilled uncompleted wells in the US has drawn down to the lowest level in nearly 10 years...
The big difference is that China is the price setter in the oil market... I think China is ok - but I could well be wrong on this.
Great article as always, Russell. I am sensing a blind spot however with respect to your understanding of whether the US is actually equipped to slow down inflation back to <2% for any sustainable measure of time (5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc.), due to the total national debt outstanding, increasing size of annual deficits (which are forecasted to increase still further), and the corresponding increase in interest expense.
At some point, it seems to me that it won't matter whether an administration "wishes" to keep inflation down, as that goal will directly conflict with their mandate to "not say no" to the electorate, as you keenly observed.
Merry Christmas to you and yours, and happy holidays to everyone
I think everywhere "needs" inflation - particular wage inflation. It makes political sense to me - and GLD/TLT was saying put the trade on. But with all things political, this can change... so I am always a bit nervous!
The issue is that for real wages to rise, wages have to rise faster than commodity prices & to some extent asset prices (mainly housing)
There isn't any benefit to the worker if increases in wages are taken away by landlords.
Agreed... Or you could just build loads more houses and then the market do it work