On almost every metric, the US looks nothing like Japan, and yet its bond market continues is Japanification. Maybe bond yields reflect the power of labour versus capital?
Russell, I have followed your writings/interviews for many years and have always been impressed by your analysis but as a retail investor couldn't access your hedge fund business. Now that you have moved on from that (and all the headaches that running a HF brings) I was wondering if you had given any thought to maybe starting up an "active" ETF that would incorporate your analysis and strategies that a retail investor could get in on. Harley Bassman (credit guy) and Mike Green (all around investor type) have joined up with Simplify Asset Mgmt and created some new and innovative ETFs centered around their expertise. Simplify does all the backend work of setting up and maintaining the ETF and you could run the strategy and investment decisions (leaving all the drudge work to Simplify). I would love to be able to invest with you if you thought that might be something you would be interested in. Thanks for your consideration, Rick
Definitely interested- but the world does not work the way i thought it did... so need to do only research for a bit. When I see a great trade I will look into it. Cheers, Russell
Hi Russell . We read ´´ The most important factor to bond yields is the power of labour over capital....The implication is that if governments begin to set and raise wages, then bond yields are at risk of rising.´´ I would like to ask if price controls imposed by governments is a tool that keeps low wages too which keeps inflation lower , so bond yields lower. I´m old enough to remember price controls in Europe and would like to learn about it.
hey Russell, so if we think about the wacc, for Japan would it not be the case it is undoubtedly on the way up, given the massive reallocation to equities in recent years. and of course the demographics & labour impact. so it is kind of believable that the long term trajectory of Japanese yields is up?
I think there are a lot of reasons yields could rise in Japan. But the BoJ and the government are keen to keep yen weak, which requres them to keep yields lower. I suspect we need change in the US.and China to bring change to Japan as far as yields are concerned.
i guess its just that its been 30 years since the bubble collapsed, & i wonder to what extent we are stuck with old tropes that no longer apply. keen to hear more, especially about US, China & Japan!
The fed also use to publish notes.that warned against keeping rates too low for too long - which they have removed. I also find this note does not explain why Russia or Brazil need much higher interest rates today.
Russell, I have followed your writings/interviews for many years and have always been impressed by your analysis but as a retail investor couldn't access your hedge fund business. Now that you have moved on from that (and all the headaches that running a HF brings) I was wondering if you had given any thought to maybe starting up an "active" ETF that would incorporate your analysis and strategies that a retail investor could get in on. Harley Bassman (credit guy) and Mike Green (all around investor type) have joined up with Simplify Asset Mgmt and created some new and innovative ETFs centered around their expertise. Simplify does all the backend work of setting up and maintaining the ETF and you could run the strategy and investment decisions (leaving all the drudge work to Simplify). I would love to be able to invest with you if you thought that might be something you would be interested in. Thanks for your consideration, Rick
Definitely interested- but the world does not work the way i thought it did... so need to do only research for a bit. When I see a great trade I will look into it. Cheers, Russell
Hi Russell . We read ´´ The most important factor to bond yields is the power of labour over capital....The implication is that if governments begin to set and raise wages, then bond yields are at risk of rising.´´ I would like to ask if price controls imposed by governments is a tool that keeps low wages too which keeps inflation lower , so bond yields lower. I´m old enough to remember price controls in Europe and would like to learn about it.
hey Russell, so if we think about the wacc, for Japan would it not be the case it is undoubtedly on the way up, given the massive reallocation to equities in recent years. and of course the demographics & labour impact. so it is kind of believable that the long term trajectory of Japanese yields is up?
I think there are a lot of reasons yields could rise in Japan. But the BoJ and the government are keen to keep yen weak, which requres them to keep yields lower. I suspect we need change in the US.and China to bring change to Japan as far as yields are concerned.
i guess its just that its been 30 years since the bubble collapsed, & i wonder to what extent we are stuck with old tropes that no longer apply. keen to hear more, especially about US, China & Japan!
Yes UK, US and Oz with low.bond yields make the old Japan narrative look very weak. That's why I am moving to more of a political analysis
this might interest you https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2016/real-interest-rates-over-the-long-run
The fed also use to publish notes.that warned against keeping rates too low for too long - which they have removed. I also find this note does not explain why Russia or Brazil need much higher interest rates today.