I’m having a hard time seeing a strong pro-labor argument in your article. The connection between rising wages and commodity prices doesn’t feel very clear, and the whole pro-labor narrative seems a bit disconnected from the main points about commodity markets. Maybe that’s because you’re coming from a UK perspective, but from my view, the rise in gold prices is more tied to the massive increase in money supply rather than wage dynamics.
Additionally, the article jumps between different commodities—oil, corn, gold—without establishing a clear link between them. It feels a bit scattered at times, and tightening the focus or connecting the commodities more clearly might help the argument flow better.
You also mention that supply is the main driver now, but there’s a lot of talk about rising demand due to higher wages, which comes off as contradictory. Clarifying whether supply or demand is the key factor would really strengthen the piece.
As for the broader context, I think some factors you haven’t touched on, like the overall drop in productivity due to ongoing work-from-home policies, trade tariffs, and bureaucratic obstacles, are playing a bigger role. The small uptick in union and labor activity seems more related to the tight labor market, driven by demographics and a general lack of interest in returning to traditional work environments, rather than any significant pro-labor shift.
Just my two cents—I think the piece has potential, but it could use a bit more clarity and cohesion.
All fair points. I was probably trying to do too much in the space substack gives me. I guess i was arguing that ALL commodities did well in period from 2000 to 2012 or so, as Asia was doing very well - and ALL commodities did poorly in the 1990s as Asia was doing poorly. Now we are in a more mixed environment - supply factors are more dominant. Will write another article when I get a chance.
I'm aware I may be succumbing to confirmation bias with current exposure, but I thought this was a great article, as a different take on what's happening with commodities. Thank you.
Note that orange juice, coffee, cocoa are all quite climate sensitive crops. Grains might be affected in a couple of years as well? Rice I haven't checked, but wouldn't be surprised as well.
I’m having a hard time seeing a strong pro-labor argument in your article. The connection between rising wages and commodity prices doesn’t feel very clear, and the whole pro-labor narrative seems a bit disconnected from the main points about commodity markets. Maybe that’s because you’re coming from a UK perspective, but from my view, the rise in gold prices is more tied to the massive increase in money supply rather than wage dynamics.
Additionally, the article jumps between different commodities—oil, corn, gold—without establishing a clear link between them. It feels a bit scattered at times, and tightening the focus or connecting the commodities more clearly might help the argument flow better.
You also mention that supply is the main driver now, but there’s a lot of talk about rising demand due to higher wages, which comes off as contradictory. Clarifying whether supply or demand is the key factor would really strengthen the piece.
As for the broader context, I think some factors you haven’t touched on, like the overall drop in productivity due to ongoing work-from-home policies, trade tariffs, and bureaucratic obstacles, are playing a bigger role. The small uptick in union and labor activity seems more related to the tight labor market, driven by demographics and a general lack of interest in returning to traditional work environments, rather than any significant pro-labor shift.
Just my two cents—I think the piece has potential, but it could use a bit more clarity and cohesion.
All fair points. I was probably trying to do too much in the space substack gives me. I guess i was arguing that ALL commodities did well in period from 2000 to 2012 or so, as Asia was doing very well - and ALL commodities did poorly in the 1990s as Asia was doing poorly. Now we are in a more mixed environment - supply factors are more dominant. Will write another article when I get a chance.
I'm aware I may be succumbing to confirmation bias with current exposure, but I thought this was a great article, as a different take on what's happening with commodities. Thank you.
I had just seen so many people say commodities were trading "funny" I thought I should write something
Note that orange juice, coffee, cocoa are all quite climate sensitive crops. Grains might be affected in a couple of years as well? Rice I haven't checked, but wouldn't be surprised as well.
Yes climate is definitely an issue here. I also think its been a surprisingly good harvests for corn, wheat and soy...