Thanks for the usual great post. Within this pro-labor framework, do inflation-linked bonds make sense to you? They seem like they would be in line with this theme, but I haven't heard you speak to them.
Great presentation. The one thing I can't get my head around is the conflict on the Gold denominated in USD. In the event of a Bond and Risk Asset sell off which I'm on board with (so to speak), USD would strengthen ultimately bringing the Gold price down. I'll probably be ok in Euro denominated terms. Perhaps Gold lags the pairing.
It is a good point. What I have seen so far is that if the Fed acts dovish, then gold shoots up, which sounds right to me. The market is telling the central banks that governments are creating inflation, so they need to counteract that. Very different to the experience of the last 30 years or so, when disinflation was the trend. So if bond yields dont rise, gold rises.... What currencies do will depend on relative CB hawkishness....
As an aside, I am looking at the relationship of reforestation and carbon capture... I am finding most of the writing on climate change is not very clear....
That sounds like a conversation with my brother, "unclear" ;-). But seriously I find the space opaque, that report was so verbose and not written for "secular" dissemination. If you follow the money it is interest groups funding the research as usual.
There used to be much more carbon in the system, but then organic life absorbed it, and some of it died and eventually became fossil fuel (that is a carbon sink)
This removed carbon from the atmosphere - and cooled the planet.
By using fossil fuels, we are putting carbon back into the system.
As this is carbon that was absorbed millions of years ago, no matter how much we reforest now, it cannot remove all the fossil fuel based emissions - purely as oil reservoirs represent millions of year of dead organic material.
Hence carbon capture will be necessary.
Still reading... but this simplification does not seem totally wrong
Looks like labor is trying to find new ways to fight back in this new shift...
https://twitter.com/ManchesterUtd81/status/1634357315179560960?t=nkF07ER-ztmoxUFE9-1jkA&s=19
Thanks for the usual great post. Within this pro-labor framework, do inflation-linked bonds make sense to you? They seem like they would be in line with this theme, but I haven't heard you speak to them.
True... have not really thought about them. Let me have a think
Great presentation. The one thing I can't get my head around is the conflict on the Gold denominated in USD. In the event of a Bond and Risk Asset sell off which I'm on board with (so to speak), USD would strengthen ultimately bringing the Gold price down. I'll probably be ok in Euro denominated terms. Perhaps Gold lags the pairing.
It is a good point. What I have seen so far is that if the Fed acts dovish, then gold shoots up, which sounds right to me. The market is telling the central banks that governments are creating inflation, so they need to counteract that. Very different to the experience of the last 30 years or so, when disinflation was the trend. So if bond yields dont rise, gold rises.... What currencies do will depend on relative CB hawkishness....
As an aside, I am looking at the relationship of reforestation and carbon capture... I am finding most of the writing on climate change is not very clear....
That sounds like a conversation with my brother, "unclear" ;-). But seriously I find the space opaque, that report was so verbose and not written for "secular" dissemination. If you follow the money it is interest groups funding the research as usual.
The way I am thinking about it is this:
Earth is a closed system
There used to be much more carbon in the system, but then organic life absorbed it, and some of it died and eventually became fossil fuel (that is a carbon sink)
This removed carbon from the atmosphere - and cooled the planet.
By using fossil fuels, we are putting carbon back into the system.
As this is carbon that was absorbed millions of years ago, no matter how much we reforest now, it cannot remove all the fossil fuel based emissions - purely as oil reservoirs represent millions of year of dead organic material.
Hence carbon capture will be necessary.
Still reading... but this simplification does not seem totally wrong
I like the simplicity of that. Its quite a polarizing topic. Best of luck in your endeavors, if I come across anything I'll pass it on. Cheers
Check out
https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/community/group/working-group-on-natural-climate-solutions/ might be a useful resource if you haven’t come across it.