Another consideration: how relevant is minimum wage in states that haven't raised it much?
For example, my state's (New Hampshire) min wage is no different than federal, yet all the fast food joints in town advertise $17/hr to start. I can't imagine anyone is working for anything remotely close to the legal min wage, at least in my area.
Not contradicting your thesis; but merely pointing out that we've moved from a regime of gov't-set min wage, to market-set min wage. If anything this will put even more upward pressure on wages & inflation.
And I agree, who in their right mind wants to lock in 5% for 20/30 years...? The fact that there's no money in duration is so weird to me - the best yields are quite literally on the 3 month (!) bill right now.
The UK, Australia and Canada look to have massively increased immigration in 2023. This looks like it was co-ordinated and designed to keep a lid on wage inflation, which is likely to infuriate domestic wage earners even more, as they have already been screwed by high house prices, increases in floating rate mortgage payments and high CPI inflation induced by central bank debasement and, in addition, all these immigrants have pushed up rents massively in the key cities.
Here in Australia, inflation is running hot, because of massive State Infrastructure & renewables spending and central bank debasement so infrastructure costs -especially cement, steel, and construction labour have gone through the roof. Non construction related workers are feeling the pinch with higher interest rates, higher cost of living (like elevated insurance, electricity, gas, rent & childcare) so discretionary spending is starting to take a bit of a hit. On balance it feels like a screwflationary environment, with continued high inflation & people having to cut back on non essentials.
Another consideration: how relevant is minimum wage in states that haven't raised it much?
For example, my state's (New Hampshire) min wage is no different than federal, yet all the fast food joints in town advertise $17/hr to start. I can't imagine anyone is working for anything remotely close to the legal min wage, at least in my area.
Not contradicting your thesis; but merely pointing out that we've moved from a regime of gov't-set min wage, to market-set min wage. If anything this will put even more upward pressure on wages & inflation.
And I agree, who in their right mind wants to lock in 5% for 20/30 years...? The fact that there's no money in duration is so weird to me - the best yields are quite literally on the 3 month (!) bill right now.
Extrapolating minimum wage inflation of 7% to total wage inflation of 7% implies everyone earns minimum wage
The UK, Australia and Canada look to have massively increased immigration in 2023. This looks like it was co-ordinated and designed to keep a lid on wage inflation, which is likely to infuriate domestic wage earners even more, as they have already been screwed by high house prices, increases in floating rate mortgage payments and high CPI inflation induced by central bank debasement and, in addition, all these immigrants have pushed up rents massively in the key cities.
Here in Australia, inflation is running hot, because of massive State Infrastructure & renewables spending and central bank debasement so infrastructure costs -especially cement, steel, and construction labour have gone through the roof. Non construction related workers are feeling the pinch with higher interest rates, higher cost of living (like elevated insurance, electricity, gas, rent & childcare) so discretionary spending is starting to take a bit of a hit. On balance it feels like a screwflationary environment, with continued high inflation & people having to cut back on non essentials.
you must not have many friends with this view :). but it makes sense to me