6 Comments

Russell your very correct about the power of capital over labor at this moment.

But always remember what Frederick Douglas said...“Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.”

Often labor, like captial policy takes time to entrench itself. Or a catalyst like trust busting to break that cycle as we've seen in the past. But with pro labor politicians becoming more persistent and established, your thesis seems as if it will be playing out the rest of this decade

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I think your core thesis (inflationary impulse from rising labour power) is basically correct

The problem is that this isn't the 1970s, so commodity related price fluctuations are less important for the economy. Also large cap corporations are eager repurchasers of equities.

I made a similar mistake being underweight/short USD against other G7 currencies on the basis of its fiscal position.

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You certainly put the fireside back into the fireside chat. Happy holidays.

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"That is the US government cannot afford higher interest rates."

The important thing to watch is interest expense as a % of tax receipts... this ratio has gone straight up in the past five quarters, BUT is still well below what it was in the 80s.

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