Or something more aligned to how societies are working with human nature and basic mechanics of economics: a short lived flash in the pan for the ultra rich will create a 2-3 year virtual stock market boom field by printing money like it is COVID again, widening the social gap to levels that even the US society has never seen, followed by an unprecedented market crash making the hard-core MAGA supporters suffer the most, US economy will need at least a decade to recover from that crash with social unrest, eruption of violence while "president" trump trying to get his third (unconstitutional) term by distracting the masses with a war between US and China while the incompetence of his inner circle will prevent them from finding solutions as they are the cause of all the chaos.
Excellent work Russell! And no worries you are absolutely videogenic. I am guessing you are going nuclear next? With Chinese effective cost and electricity capacity superior to US, grid Capex is naturally going to explode.
Data centers require electricity. Electricity does not work well with wind or sun. Countries that want to excel in data centers need real sources of terawatts of electricity. US can build data centers in areas where we are now flaring gas because we have no way to put it onto overloaded pipelines.
I keep being puzzled by the performance divergence between gold and crypto since the election. Some of it is likely expected reduction in geopolitical conflict? But my fear (since I'm more long gold than crypto), is that possibly crypto is now the new "U.S./Western gold" and gold is the gold of the 'Axis of upheaval'. What if a Trump presidency means a successful subjugation of China et al. which might reduce their surpluses and thus their ability to stack the real gold?
P.S.: Back then I would have speculated China or Russia also choosing to use BTC to weaponize the dollar as it's much easier to move it's price than it is with gold.
Gorgon, you are making a big and bold what if? American military manufacturing capacity has been hollowed out for a long time. I don’t know how can you win a war without enough shells, tanks and drones? So China subjugation is a long shot
I suspect all Trump wants is for everyone to stimulate, so they buy more American exports. If you don't stimulate, you face tariffs - so no brainer for most countries.
The Crowdstrike bug of 4 months ago can teach us that digital trade/empire is probably more efficient than naval trade/empire, but surely more vulnerable.
I have to admit that I fully disagree with your complete U-turn of the last posts. I'm not for turning: I hope that your change of heart marks a market top for technology stocks. In any case, I will continue to be a subscriber because of your unconventional thinking.
We saw the Chinese tech bear market, and the crash of ARKK, and then the implosion of FTX, and the Federal Reserve raise rates rapidly - and tech bubble has continued. I though regulation would be the end, but this election pushes regulation far far into the future. I would not mind for this to be a top in tech - but I don't really have any reasons to be bearish anymore...
interesting piece but i would caveat the conclusion with the fact that the chinese tech ecosystem is largely independent from the us one. we are heading towards a bipolar world politically and technologically.
True - but this has been the case with China and Russia for awhile. What is interesting is how the politics towards tech in China and the US are totally different now.... and I guess I am saying the British Empire and the US have achieved their success through allowing business to guide politics - and not the other way round.
Or something more aligned to how societies are working with human nature and basic mechanics of economics: a short lived flash in the pan for the ultra rich will create a 2-3 year virtual stock market boom field by printing money like it is COVID again, widening the social gap to levels that even the US society has never seen, followed by an unprecedented market crash making the hard-core MAGA supporters suffer the most, US economy will need at least a decade to recover from that crash with social unrest, eruption of violence while "president" trump trying to get his third (unconstitutional) term by distracting the masses with a war between US and China while the incompetence of his inner circle will prevent them from finding solutions as they are the cause of all the chaos.
Hi, Russel, where do you get the data Centre data from?
Nicked it off the internet - but it matches data I saw in GS report which I could not find again
Excellent work Russell! And no worries you are absolutely videogenic. I am guessing you are going nuclear next? With Chinese effective cost and electricity capacity superior to US, grid Capex is naturally going to explode.
Data centers require electricity. Electricity does not work well with wind or sun. Countries that want to excel in data centers need real sources of terawatts of electricity. US can build data centers in areas where we are now flaring gas because we have no way to put it onto overloaded pipelines.
That's a fair point - although Microsoft is opting for nuclear power
I keep being puzzled by the performance divergence between gold and crypto since the election. Some of it is likely expected reduction in geopolitical conflict? But my fear (since I'm more long gold than crypto), is that possibly crypto is now the new "U.S./Western gold" and gold is the gold of the 'Axis of upheaval'. What if a Trump presidency means a successful subjugation of China et al. which might reduce their surpluses and thus their ability to stack the real gold?
P.S.: Back then I would have speculated China or Russia also choosing to use BTC to weaponize the dollar as it's much easier to move it's price than it is with gold.
Gorgon, you are making a big and bold what if? American military manufacturing capacity has been hollowed out for a long time. I don’t know how can you win a war without enough shells, tanks and drones? So China subjugation is a long shot
I suspect all Trump wants is for everyone to stimulate, so they buy more American exports. If you don't stimulate, you face tariffs - so no brainer for most countries.
The Crowdstrike bug of 4 months ago can teach us that digital trade/empire is probably more efficient than naval trade/empire, but surely more vulnerable.
Naval trade suffered from rampant piracy - and various battles with Spain, Portugal and France...
I have to admit that I fully disagree with your complete U-turn of the last posts. I'm not for turning: I hope that your change of heart marks a market top for technology stocks. In any case, I will continue to be a subscriber because of your unconventional thinking.
We saw the Chinese tech bear market, and the crash of ARKK, and then the implosion of FTX, and the Federal Reserve raise rates rapidly - and tech bubble has continued. I though regulation would be the end, but this election pushes regulation far far into the future. I would not mind for this to be a top in tech - but I don't really have any reasons to be bearish anymore...
When the last bear 🐻 has been stopped out...
interesting piece but i would caveat the conclusion with the fact that the chinese tech ecosystem is largely independent from the us one. we are heading towards a bipolar world politically and technologically.
True - but this has been the case with China and Russia for awhile. What is interesting is how the politics towards tech in China and the US are totally different now.... and I guess I am saying the British Empire and the US have achieved their success through allowing business to guide politics - and not the other way round.
Indeed, corporate capture is certainly here to last... except perhaps for big pharma which is still suffering from a post-covid hangover.