Yeah, he dropped some tasty tidbits in there. Jnug looks particularly primed. And perhaps shorting HYG? He said it was a buy but then laid out his theory of for the opposite
I'm specifically thinking of office tower CMBS... true, lots of buildings have already re-rated in value after fire sales. But I think the other shoe has yet to drop.
As more and more debt needs to be rolled over at higher rates, more office landlords will walk away and give the buildings back to the banks/investors. And since CMBS are mostly held by small banks and private funds, the Fed will feel less compelled to intervene in the case of substantial defaults.
Also, Russell you said how you went through a process of overcoming fear. I am going through this atm. Would love to hear thoughts, resources etc you found helpful.
Face what you got wrong, and accept it. And make sure you have good friends and family around you, so that you know if things don't work out, it does not matter that much!
Its a good question... Rheinmetall was so cheap a few years ago... but it has such a good position, and is now expanding. The Japanese defensive stocks are intriguing, will take another look
I see the resemblance to Lord Lamington :)
The eyes mainly - which I get from mum - and that the same side of the family
looking forward to your shift back to the markets
Long Gold and what to complement the Short TLT AAPL? A good question for me to ponder.
Good ideas and glad to hear that inspiration struck you!
Yeah, he dropped some tasty tidbits in there. Jnug looks particularly primed. And perhaps shorting HYG? He said it was a buy but then laid out his theory of for the opposite
Thank you.
For any1 interested, here is my Mar CPI estimate:
https://open.substack.com/pub/arkominaresearch/p/mar-2024-cpi-estimates?r=1r1n6n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Sounds like your Mum’s a smart lady.
Very much so
👍Mine too
Aussie Literature Book club suggestion
Shantaram - Gregory David Roberts
ordered
Russell - have you considered a short trade against US CRE?
I think TLT buyers aren't looking for 4% for 20 years - they're looking for a cap gain from the Fed cutting rates.
Unfortunately for them, its looking more and more likely that there will be *no* rate cuts this year.
CRE is pretty cheap already....
I'm specifically thinking of office tower CMBS... true, lots of buildings have already re-rated in value after fire sales. But I think the other shoe has yet to drop.
As more and more debt needs to be rolled over at higher rates, more office landlords will walk away and give the buildings back to the banks/investors. And since CMBS are mostly held by small banks and private funds, the Fed will feel less compelled to intervene in the case of substantial defaults.
True - this is the one big concern I have on my Japanese bank trade....
Also, Russell you said how you went through a process of overcoming fear. I am going through this atm. Would love to hear thoughts, resources etc you found helpful.
Face what you got wrong, and accept it. And make sure you have good friends and family around you, so that you know if things don't work out, it does not matter that much!
I mad a tweet for you re: the movie *Sleeper* , thought it was funny guess not 🫤 https://x.com/tgwtom/status/1776216718601281785?s=61&t=PHw_uwJPgu_EiRms4Oe2Sw
I have seen Sleeper - but a long time ago! Sorry - I only use twitter occasionally these days
Great energy on this piece. 👍
What do you make of Defence stocks for the long book?
They may be defensive in more ways than one - Rheinmetall has already run up but there's others like SAAB, BAE, MHI etc.
Its a good question... Rheinmetall was so cheap a few years ago... but it has such a good position, and is now expanding. The Japanese defensive stocks are intriguing, will take another look