Well said. While the tax arb is negative for the US and others, it's also a signal for them to cut spending in lieu of their ability to raise tax revenue in the short term. I know it will never happen...
In the West, the Legal system (Judiciary) and the Government of the day (Executive) are technically independent, so it takes enormous pressure (ie: political revolution, civil war) for the status quo to be overturned. Hence I feel that it's unlikely that the incumbent monopolies will be dethroned. It's more likely that the independence of the Central Bank is less sacred than that of the courts, so devaluation of the bond market is far more likely than the equity market.
In China, no branch of government is independent of the Communist Party, hence the very rapid and effective anti-monopoly crackdown. While good for the consumer down the line, it's terrible for minority investors.
I think this is a fascinating concept that is worth digging much deeper into. You well lay out a theoretical foundation for this idea, but if it has legs the implications for asset pricing are significant. What is then the ‘risk-free rate? Is it the dividend/FCF/shareholder yield of a basket of these platform multinationals? You have a point- equities do trade as if the RFR is far lower than UST yields.
I think there are confluence of factors at play here, especially the passive flows. I am sure you must be familiar with Mike Green's work on passive flows, until they stop and reverse, those flows will continue to flow to the biggest of the biggest tech names, Mag 7. If gov decides to crack down on Big tech platforms, they must be also doing some massive regulatory changes to the mutual and pension fund management industry, not until then, we won't see a reversal of the big tech outperformance?
I'm selling a unit in Sydney and came across 2 platform businesses, DHG.AX and REA.AX. There is literally no other way to sell a house without both these taking a surcharge.
Rookie take, platform companies you referenced are global businesses with reach and impact well outside the US, maybe 'this time its different' and they largely exist (sales, local business operations) outside the reach of US government and the USD centric GLD/TLT?
As we saw in Covid - governments have almost unlimited power. If they choose to act - then they will. The Chinese showed how to regulate tech platforms.... now.its just.a.question of political will.
Well said. While the tax arb is negative for the US and others, it's also a signal for them to cut spending in lieu of their ability to raise tax revenue in the short term. I know it will never happen...
In the West, the Legal system (Judiciary) and the Government of the day (Executive) are technically independent, so it takes enormous pressure (ie: political revolution, civil war) for the status quo to be overturned. Hence I feel that it's unlikely that the incumbent monopolies will be dethroned. It's more likely that the independence of the Central Bank is less sacred than that of the courts, so devaluation of the bond market is far more likely than the equity market.
In China, no branch of government is independent of the Communist Party, hence the very rapid and effective anti-monopoly crackdown. While good for the consumer down the line, it's terrible for minority investors.
I think this is a fascinating concept that is worth digging much deeper into. You well lay out a theoretical foundation for this idea, but if it has legs the implications for asset pricing are significant. What is then the ‘risk-free rate? Is it the dividend/FCF/shareholder yield of a basket of these platform multinationals? You have a point- equities do trade as if the RFR is far lower than UST yields.
You could argue they already trade inside treasuries.... or inside their corporate bond yields
Hi, Russel,
I think there are confluence of factors at play here, especially the passive flows. I am sure you must be familiar with Mike Green's work on passive flows, until they stop and reverse, those flows will continue to flow to the biggest of the biggest tech names, Mag 7. If gov decides to crack down on Big tech platforms, they must be also doing some massive regulatory changes to the mutual and pension fund management industry, not until then, we won't see a reversal of the big tech outperformance?
Not a buyer of passive flows. Buyback yes -bur ETFs causing mispricing is not a good theory
I'm selling a unit in Sydney and came across 2 platform businesses, DHG.AX and REA.AX. There is literally no other way to sell a house without both these taking a surcharge.
Rookie take, platform companies you referenced are global businesses with reach and impact well outside the US, maybe 'this time its different' and they largely exist (sales, local business operations) outside the reach of US government and the USD centric GLD/TLT?
As we saw in Covid - governments have almost unlimited power. If they choose to act - then they will. The Chinese showed how to regulate tech platforms.... now.its just.a.question of political will.