18 Comments

This is similar to the FANG / Mag 7 debate. Defining the political shift catalyst is hard. It's a bit like pornography. You'll recognise it when you see it!

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Really tricky topic here. We have what some are calling the age of solipsism with the rise of Instagram and Tiktok making everyone want to show off on the Internet with fancy designer purchases, but you also have a rising socialist movement that you highlighted that is creating backlash against this sort of posturing. Between the two scenarios, it feels like a coinflip for which one will be more dominant going forward, which makes it really hard to have a view on luxury in either direction.

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Interesting take. I think the rise of influencers and social media probably affects trends before 2011. Eg Cognac in the Americas is not the drink of choice. Celebrities like George Clooney, The Rock and Ryan Reynolds took market share with Tequila and Gin.

With access much greater to grey market luxury items too, it doesn’t seem as likely that there is a short for certain luxury categories, so finding the right one to short will be tough IMHO.

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Biggest mistake ever to short luxury. Especially lvmh / hermes or kering. These are buy and hold & add on average hist pe. Hermes and lvmh have nothing to do with canada good or swiss watches numbers. Their brands are recession totally recession proof. Best businesses in the world. Family managed businesses with no debt. They are very very niche businesses in fact. additionally they are now trading close to mars 2020 hist pe. So great entry points.

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So is there an asymmetric bet in Aston Martin? :)

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Who the hell drinks cognac? I’d figure bourbon to be a better gauge of American luxury beverage consumption.

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