On fertility - it feels like Western living standards need to improve first. I think even some middle-class people are put off, due to the expense of it - and I'm not talking private school fees, which are now priced out of reach from a generation ago. Now that mortgages (if you're lucky) or rent are so expensive, there's not much left for baby. I'm afraid I don't have any numbers to back this up, more instinctive and hearsay. It's a big topic, and a very interesting and important one. Pro-Labour policies would probably help, but they may take a while?
Seems like the fertilit issue goes way, way, way beyond good jobs or socialism. Society has just changed so much. Young people are turning into screen zombies and living their lives on the internet. Who has time to talk to a girl when you head is buried in your phone every waking hour? Gender roles and family structures are getting very confused. Lots of people have anxiety they will have no clue what the world will look like in 10 years with AI & robotics. Will they have a job? Will anyone? Massive migrant shifts and some of the fastest ethnic demographic shifts in recorded history in the developed world. Who is thinking about creating a family and having kids in this environment?
Russell, Jeremy Grantham from GMO has a credible assumption for the lower birht rates : the rise of toxicity over the last 30+ years. See below
"toxicity has become an overlooked driver of the global collapse in birth rates. Over the last 50 years, toxicity has driven average sperm counts down by more than two-thirds and testosterone levels by a similar amount. Infertility is now estimated to affect one in six couples trying to have children. Age-adjusted miscarriage rates in the U.S. are rising at 1% a year. And all surveys of sexual activity – across every country, age group, etc. – suggest a decline in average libido.
■ These effects have contributed to a decline in annual global births from 142 million to 130 million over the last twelve years. Every developed country ex-Israel now has a rapidly declining baby count. Japan, leading the pack, has a current crop of 20-year-olds that is down 50% from its peak about 50 years ago.
■ Of course, there are plenty of other reasons for declining birth rates. Birth control, female education, and above all, falling infant mortality all played a big part in the decline in birth rate since 1960. Since then, housing, childcare, and education have all risen in price steadily more than the average. And all human desires are culturally molded; people seeing smaller families and more childless people around them tend to want smaller families themselves. Many of these reasons form a vicious cycle in which toxicity is likely an underrated component.
■ This ongoing decline in sperm count and testosterone is now so severe – over 2% per annum in recent years – that if we extrapolate current trends, most couples will be infertile in as little as 20 to 30 years. If toxicity is not arrested, it could prove to be an existential threat. It will guarantee a continued decline in births. Even now, it is contributing to a collapse of population profiles that will impair social cohesion globally."
Not sure about that theory.... but if.it is true then could be.reversed pretty easily. People forget how toxic life even.in the 70s was. Lead petrol, smoking indoors...
Russell, it is not merely a 'theory', it is well-argumented using scientific papers. You are of course right about the 70s but toxicity is cumulative and slow to have an impact. As to how it could be 'reversed pretty easily' - how? adapting the productive system, even if possible, would take decades
I guess I look at fertility crisis as women having less babies... not as not enough men getting women pregnant. It would also be hard to tease declining sperms count from rising use of contraceptives from data.
Either way the rising use of ART should.also.counter falling sperm count
On fertility - it feels like Western living standards need to improve first. I think even some middle-class people are put off, due to the expense of it - and I'm not talking private school fees, which are now priced out of reach from a generation ago. Now that mortgages (if you're lucky) or rent are so expensive, there's not much left for baby. I'm afraid I don't have any numbers to back this up, more instinctive and hearsay. It's a big topic, and a very interesting and important one. Pro-Labour policies would probably help, but they may take a while?
100 percent agree... but at 51 I know how much can change in 25 years... and the process has begun
Seems like the fertilit issue goes way, way, way beyond good jobs or socialism. Society has just changed so much. Young people are turning into screen zombies and living their lives on the internet. Who has time to talk to a girl when you head is buried in your phone every waking hour? Gender roles and family structures are getting very confused. Lots of people have anxiety they will have no clue what the world will look like in 10 years with AI & robotics. Will they have a job? Will anyone? Massive migrant shifts and some of the fastest ethnic demographic shifts in recorded history in the developed world. Who is thinking about creating a family and having kids in this environment?
What data source do you use for the auto call issuance Russell?
Nice p&i
Russell, Jeremy Grantham from GMO has a credible assumption for the lower birht rates : the rise of toxicity over the last 30+ years. See below
"toxicity has become an overlooked driver of the global collapse in birth rates. Over the last 50 years, toxicity has driven average sperm counts down by more than two-thirds and testosterone levels by a similar amount. Infertility is now estimated to affect one in six couples trying to have children. Age-adjusted miscarriage rates in the U.S. are rising at 1% a year. And all surveys of sexual activity – across every country, age group, etc. – suggest a decline in average libido.
■ These effects have contributed to a decline in annual global births from 142 million to 130 million over the last twelve years. Every developed country ex-Israel now has a rapidly declining baby count. Japan, leading the pack, has a current crop of 20-year-olds that is down 50% from its peak about 50 years ago.
■ Of course, there are plenty of other reasons for declining birth rates. Birth control, female education, and above all, falling infant mortality all played a big part in the decline in birth rate since 1960. Since then, housing, childcare, and education have all risen in price steadily more than the average. And all human desires are culturally molded; people seeing smaller families and more childless people around them tend to want smaller families themselves. Many of these reasons form a vicious cycle in which toxicity is likely an underrated component.
■ This ongoing decline in sperm count and testosterone is now so severe – over 2% per annum in recent years – that if we extrapolate current trends, most couples will be infertile in as little as 20 to 30 years. If toxicity is not arrested, it could prove to be an existential threat. It will guarantee a continued decline in births. Even now, it is contributing to a collapse of population profiles that will impair social cohesion globally."
https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/viewpoints/2025/gmo_rising-toxicity-and-the-threat-to-capitalism-and-life-itself_3-25.pdf
Not sure about that theory.... but if.it is true then could be.reversed pretty easily. People forget how toxic life even.in the 70s was. Lead petrol, smoking indoors...
Russell, it is not merely a 'theory', it is well-argumented using scientific papers. You are of course right about the 70s but toxicity is cumulative and slow to have an impact. As to how it could be 'reversed pretty easily' - how? adapting the productive system, even if possible, would take decades
I guess I look at fertility crisis as women having less babies... not as not enough men getting women pregnant. It would also be hard to tease declining sperms count from rising use of contraceptives from data.
Either way the rising use of ART should.also.counter falling sperm count
I reckon it’s not domestic population fertility rates rather migrant fertility rates that will ultimately drive the outcome of your theory.