Post the halving earlier this year, btc miner economics flipped even more upside down. However for many of the operators that had access to power purchase agreements, they were able to jump on the AI hype train and switch business model (hence why post reorg garbage companies like Core Scientific have seen their stock prices triple YTD). The result is that mining swing capacity did not react as quickly as usual to price. But I'm sure it will now miner economics are possibly attractive at 90-100K. So the corner may have been successful thus far but seems driven by the unusual dynamics in the miner space.
Short more bonds eh. Are you considering participation in Bitcornz?
Its hard to correlate bitcoin price to 'inflation' and how it might 'hedge', not the bitcorn marketing team's best work. Maybe more adoption/capitalisation process, in price discovery mode.
I can't find a chart that replicates the number of bitcoin traded daily, assume this is sum of exchange traded volume and on-chain. Coinbase data on TradingView shows a much flatter ~1/2 million coinz per month going back ~8 years.
Unlike silver there is no additional supply response to higher prices.
Probably a lot of negative retail experiences with people paper-handling their first cycle or 2 before they figure it out. Its not easy to hodl without some experience, discipline, knowledge, so we aren't seeing Lambo inflation to the extent expected.
If the US 10 year note hits 8% a LOT of other things (private equity, EM high yield) will break well before yields hit 10%
It'd be a second GFC
I think that's true, in fact, 6% in the 10yr will break a lot of stuff
But look at how much buying pressure there was when the 10yr hit 5% last year.
Yield solves demand problems - the higher yields go, the bigger the bond bid as investors rotate out of risk.
If you have wage inflation at 7% annually, 10% interest rates won't stop anything.
Post the halving earlier this year, btc miner economics flipped even more upside down. However for many of the operators that had access to power purchase agreements, they were able to jump on the AI hype train and switch business model (hence why post reorg garbage companies like Core Scientific have seen their stock prices triple YTD). The result is that mining swing capacity did not react as quickly as usual to price. But I'm sure it will now miner economics are possibly attractive at 90-100K. So the corner may have been successful thus far but seems driven by the unusual dynamics in the miner space.
With over 90% of all supply out there, I really wonder what role miners have in price swings...
If we hit 10% on the 10 or even 20-year, what does that translate to for TLT price? Under $75?
Depends on the coupon. With current low coupons it would translate into a very big fall in TLT.
Ahmed Husain latest substack delineates nicely bitcoin potential benefits from Trump administration.
Short more bonds eh. Are you considering participation in Bitcornz?
Its hard to correlate bitcoin price to 'inflation' and how it might 'hedge', not the bitcorn marketing team's best work. Maybe more adoption/capitalisation process, in price discovery mode.
I can't find a chart that replicates the number of bitcoin traded daily, assume this is sum of exchange traded volume and on-chain. Coinbase data on TradingView shows a much flatter ~1/2 million coinz per month going back ~8 years.
Unlike silver there is no additional supply response to higher prices.
Probably a lot of negative retail experiences with people paper-handling their first cycle or 2 before they figure it out. Its not easy to hodl without some experience, discipline, knowledge, so we aren't seeing Lambo inflation to the extent expected.