Great presentation Russell. I never consider the similarities between Soros and Buffett and their implications. I do have a sense that the shift from capital to labor is in the very early innings. the Market is changing from the old leaders to the new...the old rules no longer apply. thanks!
Interesting how you framed buffet macro frameworks.however,looking at buffet writings he never cited macro as his way of looking at it .he always emphasized bottom up factors in petro China and BYD.
I understand,buffet have always said don’t bet against America but being bull in us government policy is available for every one to follow but how to play it in terms of bottom up is the art and buffet skills .why he played the EV through BYD not TSLA or any other company.that was my point .in Burlington rail way he said he thesis is a bet on future us economic growth.but that’s not full story .the real one is industry is now consolidating and becoming monopoly plus other factors
I see what you are saying. I was tempted to do a Tesla v BYD comparison - but did not want to add length to the presentation. When Buffett invested, BYD had a good lithium business that generated cash, and a reasonable valuation. TSLA as far as I know was burning cash until recently, which is the big different. To Elon Musk's credit he managed the equity dilution very well, but BYD had the cashflow, which made it a better play I think
I dont think he is being entirely honest here.. Yes I think it is true that he only read the annual report before investing in petrochina, but I am pretty sure he would realise that China was turning from a net exporter of energy to an importer of energy, which meant that the government needed to change pricing policies (you can sell below world price if you are an importer!). So I suspect he had read a lot of other things on the energy market and china before looking for an idea that fits that theme....
Great presentation Russell. I never consider the similarities between Soros and Buffett and their implications. I do have a sense that the shift from capital to labor is in the very early innings. the Market is changing from the old leaders to the new...the old rules no longer apply. thanks!
Interesting how you framed buffet macro frameworks.however,looking at buffet writings he never cited macro as his way of looking at it .he always emphasized bottom up factors in petro China and BYD.
Its not macro I am looking at here - but government policy
I understand,buffet have always said don’t bet against America but being bull in us government policy is available for every one to follow but how to play it in terms of bottom up is the art and buffet skills .why he played the EV through BYD not TSLA or any other company.that was my point .in Burlington rail way he said he thesis is a bet on future us economic growth.but that’s not full story .the real one is industry is now consolidating and becoming monopoly plus other factors
I see what you are saying. I was tempted to do a Tesla v BYD comparison - but did not want to add length to the presentation. When Buffett invested, BYD had a good lithium business that generated cash, and a reasonable valuation. TSLA as far as I know was burning cash until recently, which is the big different. To Elon Musk's credit he managed the equity dilution very well, but BYD had the cashflow, which made it a better play I think
Here buffet answers his rational for petro China .https://youtu.be/BQHILdryQ_o.funny how buffet makes his style seems very easy which is not.
I dont think he is being entirely honest here.. Yes I think it is true that he only read the annual report before investing in petrochina, but I am pretty sure he would realise that China was turning from a net exporter of energy to an importer of energy, which meant that the government needed to change pricing policies (you can sell below world price if you are an importer!). So I suspect he had read a lot of other things on the energy market and china before looking for an idea that fits that theme....
I totally agree Russell .
Any update on your Fertility Rates theory and how they relate to inflation now? Cheers
Soon
TSMC and buy American/Friendshoring?
TSMC is a tricky one. Is it really in US interests to have all the most advanced chip making in Taiwan?
Buy American is also difficult trade to play.
The other main foreign position he's been building is in the Japanese sogo soshas
I see this as a bet on higher commodity prices and Japanese reflation