If China makes technological breakthroughs that allow them to significantly increase semi production, and not require Nvidia, what will that mean for your argument? To me it means equities down, but what about inflation and bonds?
Re gold/spx, I assume there are a few taking the other side right now. Presumably gold has to at least consolidate for 6 months given the parabolic move? And on equities almost everyone I speak to is in the Q4 melt-up category. The Paul Tudor Jones argument, which you will know, is seasonality, rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, run the economy hot, means we get the fabled "blow-off top".
Seems like a few too many people are calling for this for it to really happen, but I might have this wrong.
I believe they make the breakthrough, but it emboldens them to go for Taiwan. Which I assume is uber bearish Tech, and ends up being inflationary. Very speculative roadmap I admit. Would also take gold/ spx to the moon, when the time comes.
Thanks Russell. Maybe a different question for you re gold: what is it reacting to? My math says gold has appreciated at this pace only 2.3% of the time since 1920. So to my way of thinking, gold is sprinting because something very rare and important is taking place. What do you think that rare and important thing is?
There are three options i think. One - treasuries is losing reserve status, two developed world government debt crisis is brewing or 3 - equities and credit look unattractive. They are not mutually exclusive
thanks! I would add a 4th: global systemic split from 1 globalized world into 2 increasingly armed camps - one for China+allies, and one for US & its allies. gold ownership as neutral reserve asset is a security/de-risking move. so close to losing reserve status idea but more pointed and time sensitive
If Western semiconductor companies are the new OPEC... the China is the west during 1970s. Similar economic malaise and desperate efforts reduce dependence.... certainly if China could achieve technological breakthrough to reduce chip prices then China would win just at the US did eventually
If China makes technological breakthroughs that allow them to significantly increase semi production, and not require Nvidia, what will that mean for your argument? To me it means equities down, but what about inflation and bonds?
Re gold/spx, I assume there are a few taking the other side right now. Presumably gold has to at least consolidate for 6 months given the parabolic move? And on equities almost everyone I speak to is in the Q4 melt-up category. The Paul Tudor Jones argument, which you will know, is seasonality, rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, run the economy hot, means we get the fabled "blow-off top".
Seems like a few too many people are calling for this for it to really happen, but I might have this wrong.
It would probably be deflationary then - as technological progress is usually deflationary....
I believe they make the breakthrough, but it emboldens them to go for Taiwan. Which I assume is uber bearish Tech, and ends up being inflationary. Very speculative roadmap I admit. Would also take gold/ spx to the moon, when the time comes.
Thanks Russell. Maybe a different question for you re gold: what is it reacting to? My math says gold has appreciated at this pace only 2.3% of the time since 1920. So to my way of thinking, gold is sprinting because something very rare and important is taking place. What do you think that rare and important thing is?
There are three options i think. One - treasuries is losing reserve status, two developed world government debt crisis is brewing or 3 - equities and credit look unattractive. They are not mutually exclusive
thanks! I would add a 4th: global systemic split from 1 globalized world into 2 increasingly armed camps - one for China+allies, and one for US & its allies. gold ownership as neutral reserve asset is a security/de-risking move. so close to losing reserve status idea but more pointed and time sensitive
I hope it isn't 4. World war 3
Interesting reflexion. What is the last chart representing?
Gold v S&P 500
If Western semiconductor companies are the new OPEC... the China is the west during 1970s. Similar economic malaise and desperate efforts reduce dependence.... certainly if China could achieve technological breakthrough to reduce chip prices then China would win just at the US did eventually