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I think Hugh’s spidey sense is off here. US Debt ceiling is going to roll out a huge amount of Long Duration Debt pushing the yield up while the short end continues to drop.

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Maybe the top is in:

Billionaire Chris Rokos De-Risks Hedge Fund After Losses

London-based firm sends letter to clients after FT report

Says firm played no part in discussions between regulators.

The firm sent the letter in response to a Financial Times story that said the US Securities & Exchange Commission raised concerns over Rokos Capital Management after an outsized bet on US government bonds backfired and forced the hedge fund to hand over large amounts of cash to its banks as collateral. The UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England declined to comment to the newspaper. A Rokos spokesman declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.

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Top in bond prices? Yes - leveraged short bets must have hurt a lot! I would love to see more details on this trade - but as I was pointing out not too long ago, most hedge fund strategies are unappealling if Fed fund rates get to 5%

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OTOH BOJ base rate is still -0.10%

Something tells me it just ain't over yet.

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What do you make of equities from here?

They haven't repriced by as much as the bond selloff.

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Still not a fan

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Is not current bank issues deflationary where Hugh would be correct?

What are your thoughts on Dot plot showing Fed cuts going forward?

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It really depends on how governments react here - is they allow free markets to run riot, yes very deflationary. But as we saw SVIB - they came in an guaranteed all deposits, so I see inflation continuing

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After listening to you, I wonder if Hugh is a momentum guy and turned into a Paul Tudor Jones type market sniper...

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Not sure. Should I have a debate with Hugh about TLT? Could be a laugh

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