6 Comments
author

Was asked about percentage of chips going into crypto. Not sure to be honest. But i do know after the crypto bust in 2018 both NVDA and TSMC warned. I suspect crypto has a.stronger effect on pricing than volume

Expand full comment

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge

Expand full comment

Great charts and commentary. I work in this field.

I have never seen anything like the market we have been in since late 2020. 70 week leadtimes for lots of parts, we are picking which customers to support, and locking up business with long term agreements.

Automotive (especially EVs also ADAS) and cloud computing (especially AI) should continue to grow at quite a clip.

Expand full comment
author

As I was saying below - semis are now seen a strategic asset - a bit like the change in oil supply in 1970s started to be seen as strategic. So governments are trying to get supply to increase - see the 50bn investment support program from the US etc. The issue is whether that will work or not - but historically speaking once supply is identified as a problem, it gets solved eventually.

Expand full comment

There is a real risk of bumpy semi demand over the next few quarters as companies determine what real demand is. But longer term semi margins are headed higher and that is what makes the sector a good investment imo. Some of those fat software margins are going to head to silicon. Easier to change your software vs hardware as everyone and everything needs compute/storage/connectivity

Expand full comment
author

Next few quarters sure.. but you can see that strategically Europe, Japan, US and China all want to move cutting edge chip manufacturing away from Taiwan. This implies a lot of redundant capacity...

Expand full comment