In my opinion, Pax Americana has peaked, Globalisation has peaked and that means dollar use, long term has probably peaked too...as we move to a multi-polar world order and CBDCs start to be introduced, I think Bitcoin will have another chance for a heavy rally as people move wealth around to where they think it will be safest. Programmable CBDCs will and should be scary prospects for all of us, but certainly for the wealthy. Should they find themselves on the wrong side of the political aisles and in opposition to government direction, they may find that programmable CBDCs get weaponised against them.
That means the price rise won't be driven by excess liquidity this time, but by the things people always said it was setup to achieve; gold like characteristics but with more portability than the yellow stuff!
If BTC manages to ride that next adoption phase and manages to become more widely held and used by those not deemed, "crypto native", it should survive and persist. If it doesn't benefit from a threat laden political/macro environment and can't prove itself useful and stable (in terms of downside volatility anyway, since who worries about upside volatility) then it will slowly die off, as rewards for mining and securing the network reduce and aren't able to be replaced by sufficient transaction throughput and a workable fee model
Great analysis. There has certainly been a decoupling of the Nasdaq/crypto correlation as of late (especially with the move post Fed 11.2). This does create an environment, coupled with "technicals" that appears appealing - especially given there is apparently nowhere to deploy cash.
But the dollar is absolutely surging and so to your point, cash is probably still the place to be.
I would note that the stablecoin liquidity indicator isn't what it once was as funding is now direct on most major exchanges (ie PLAID pushes money to an account where you can use USD to purchase crypto directly). Stablecoins were once a critical onramp, but less so now.
From a technical perspective, I have 10-12k BTC downside target. I will reassess at that point. Especially since dollar still seems to be in a bull trend. My current macro view is higher commodity prices and a stronger US dollar. Obviously, they are normally inversely correlated. Which leads me to a question, Is the market environment possible?
In my opinion, Pax Americana has peaked, Globalisation has peaked and that means dollar use, long term has probably peaked too...as we move to a multi-polar world order and CBDCs start to be introduced, I think Bitcoin will have another chance for a heavy rally as people move wealth around to where they think it will be safest. Programmable CBDCs will and should be scary prospects for all of us, but certainly for the wealthy. Should they find themselves on the wrong side of the political aisles and in opposition to government direction, they may find that programmable CBDCs get weaponised against them.
That means the price rise won't be driven by excess liquidity this time, but by the things people always said it was setup to achieve; gold like characteristics but with more portability than the yellow stuff!
If BTC manages to ride that next adoption phase and manages to become more widely held and used by those not deemed, "crypto native", it should survive and persist. If it doesn't benefit from a threat laden political/macro environment and can't prove itself useful and stable (in terms of downside volatility anyway, since who worries about upside volatility) then it will slowly die off, as rewards for mining and securing the network reduce and aren't able to be replaced by sufficient transaction throughput and a workable fee model
Great analysis. There has certainly been a decoupling of the Nasdaq/crypto correlation as of late (especially with the move post Fed 11.2). This does create an environment, coupled with "technicals" that appears appealing - especially given there is apparently nowhere to deploy cash.
But the dollar is absolutely surging and so to your point, cash is probably still the place to be.
I would note that the stablecoin liquidity indicator isn't what it once was as funding is now direct on most major exchanges (ie PLAID pushes money to an account where you can use USD to purchase crypto directly). Stablecoins were once a critical onramp, but less so now.
From a technical perspective, I have 10-12k BTC downside target. I will reassess at that point. Especially since dollar still seems to be in a bull trend. My current macro view is higher commodity prices and a stronger US dollar. Obviously, they are normally inversely correlated. Which leads me to a question, Is the market environment possible?
"Throw it in the bin, I don't really care." - heartwarming stuff ;-)
Very interesting on the CME Bitcoin Net Non-Commercial Futures Position. Would you have a ticker for that please?