Agree entirely. I’m in the UK and just look are naive/stupid the politicians are. Their policies are farcical and when they go wrong they ‘double down’! As you say idiots.
The long gold trade has been epic. I think we're still in early innings. I personally don't short, but do you reckon the passage of the Genius Act(stablecoins) and the potential for new bank rules reducing eSLR in their capital ratio will provide more than enough treasury demand to keep rates low?
Russel, does your call for an eventual 10% at the long end factor in governmental intervention (yield curve control and/or forced purchases by banks/pension plans, other shenanigans), or are all bets off if these types of interventions were to become reality ?
Very odd - from 100bn in 2021, to 426bn today. To be fair, we have seen a shift from central banks to private ownership - which is potentially less risky than Government owned holdings... and there has been a yield pick up - but surely Canadians must be selling this down now?
Tbh I have a suspicion this is part of a larger trade negotiation. We buy debt in exchange for less tariff pain. Seems like a bad deal but I think Carney et all are desperate to avoid serious pain, Canada is in a very bad state.
The holdings are larger than foreign reserves... I suspect its your banks and asset managers who are buying... it is line with movements in TLT shares outstanding
Agree entirely. I’m in the UK and just look are naive/stupid the politicians are. Their policies are farcical and when they go wrong they ‘double down’! As you say idiots.
I agree!
The long gold trade has been epic. I think we're still in early innings. I personally don't short, but do you reckon the passage of the Genius Act(stablecoins) and the potential for new bank rules reducing eSLR in their capital ratio will provide more than enough treasury demand to keep rates low?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/us-plans-to-ease-capital-rule-limiting-banks-treasury-trades
Maybe... but the spread on US 30s to US 10s looks low to me and also low to Japan 30 year yields....
Russel, does your call for an eventual 10% at the long end factor in governmental intervention (yield curve control and/or forced purchases by banks/pension plans, other shenanigans), or are all bets off if these types of interventions were to become reality ?
Maybe - which is why you have to pair it with an inflation hedge like gold
But what do you really think of nations buying US Long Duration Bonds???? 🤣 can’t be said that you were unclear.
Fed funds is still 4.25-4.5% and Powell isn't cutting rates at all this year.
How is the 10 year a buy with no term premium @ 4.4%? Plus the twin risks of inflation and increasing deficits?
Or with wage growth at 4.4%?
The Canadian gov is buying US treasuries! We’re very smart.
Very odd - from 100bn in 2021, to 426bn today. To be fair, we have seen a shift from central banks to private ownership - which is potentially less risky than Government owned holdings... and there has been a yield pick up - but surely Canadians must be selling this down now?
Tbh I have a suspicion this is part of a larger trade negotiation. We buy debt in exchange for less tariff pain. Seems like a bad deal but I think Carney et all are desperate to avoid serious pain, Canada is in a very bad state.
The holdings are larger than foreign reserves... I suspect its your banks and asset managers who are buying... it is line with movements in TLT shares outstanding