Agree entirely. I’m in the UK and just look are naive/stupid the politicians are. Their policies are farcical and when they go wrong they ‘double down’! As you say idiots.
Russel, does your call for an eventual 10% at the long end factor in governmental intervention (yield curve control and/or forced purchases by banks/pension plans, other shenanigans), or are all bets off if these types of interventions were to become reality ?
Very odd - from 100bn in 2021, to 426bn today. To be fair, we have seen a shift from central banks to private ownership - which is potentially less risky than Government owned holdings... and there has been a yield pick up - but surely Canadians must be selling this down now?
Tbh I have a suspicion this is part of a larger trade negotiation. We buy debt in exchange for less tariff pain. Seems like a bad deal but I think Carney et all are desperate to avoid serious pain, Canada is in a very bad state.
The holdings are larger than foreign reserves... I suspect its your banks and asset managers who are buying... it is line with movements in TLT shares outstanding
Agree entirely. I’m in the UK and just look are naive/stupid the politicians are. Their policies are farcical and when they go wrong they ‘double down’! As you say idiots.
Russel, does your call for an eventual 10% at the long end factor in governmental intervention (yield curve control and/or forced purchases by banks/pension plans, other shenanigans), or are all bets off if these types of interventions were to become reality ?
But what do you really think of nations buying US Long Duration Bonds???? 🤣 can’t be said that you were unclear.
Fed funds is still 4.25-4.5% and Powell isn't cutting rates at all this year.
How is the 10 year a buy with no term premium @ 4.4%? Plus the twin risks of inflation and increasing deficits?
Or with wage growth at 4.4%?
The Canadian gov is buying US treasuries! We’re very smart.
Very odd - from 100bn in 2021, to 426bn today. To be fair, we have seen a shift from central banks to private ownership - which is potentially less risky than Government owned holdings... and there has been a yield pick up - but surely Canadians must be selling this down now?
Tbh I have a suspicion this is part of a larger trade negotiation. We buy debt in exchange for less tariff pain. Seems like a bad deal but I think Carney et all are desperate to avoid serious pain, Canada is in a very bad state.
The holdings are larger than foreign reserves... I suspect its your banks and asset managers who are buying... it is line with movements in TLT shares outstanding