Looks like the Yuan volatility is finally on the rise, are they taking a shot across the bow to the Fed to stop raising rates or blow up the corporate bond market? Seems like capital flows from China are reversing and the US is increasingly targeting the current account now as WW3 heats up. Any thoughts on that Russell?
A very fresh perspective, but i guess challenge is there are too many moving drivers here other than those discussed 1) Agri policies from other larger producers like Brazil 2) Climate Change 3) Rising income colliding with declining demographics.
I've been following this since your post - curious to hear any updates on your end? China keeps devaluing the Yuan (or defending its decline due to lockdowns). Yen trading up today, so would appreciate any updates?
thank you! I agree that the Yuan will continue to appreciate against the Dollar (expecting a swift move when they get out of lockdowns) btw, just wanted to see if we were aligned
notice houses to rent in the Hamptons now $1m month! the US is the problem with massive inflation and loads of government debt and massive deficits. The dollar and US bonds are probably the opportunities particularly bonds 5% soon maybe.
Okay I can see how you do that for gold/precious metals, but how on earth are you doing that for food/oil/etc? You have a big garage to store those things? (LOL) Also, how do you go about selling it when you think they have reached their peak?
Well the idea is that governments will attmept to raise real wages... so commodities should keep rising until we shift back to favouring capital over labour....
Older population, eats less, population expected to flatline or even decline from 2025. How do you quantify this trend on how it would impact food inflation?
Really interesting perspective. I don't think Western economies have enough room for Wage Inflation before demand destruction kicks in and I'm not sure Western Wage inflation saves demand destruction (a bit circular there). Going to have to rethink bonds now.
Looks like the Yuan volatility is finally on the rise, are they taking a shot across the bow to the Fed to stop raising rates or blow up the corporate bond market? Seems like capital flows from China are reversing and the US is increasingly targeting the current account now as WW3 heats up. Any thoughts on that Russell?
Thanks,
Tyler
A very fresh perspective, but i guess challenge is there are too many moving drivers here other than those discussed 1) Agri policies from other larger producers like Brazil 2) Climate Change 3) Rising income colliding with declining demographics.
curious what your thoughts are after China fixed the FX rate today?
Given the weakness in Euro and Yen it is still phenomenally strong.
I've been following this since your post - curious to hear any updates on your end? China keeps devaluing the Yuan (or defending its decline due to lockdowns). Yen trading up today, so would appreciate any updates?
just sent something...
thank you! I agree that the Yuan will continue to appreciate against the Dollar (expecting a swift move when they get out of lockdowns) btw, just wanted to see if we were aligned
notice houses to rent in the Hamptons now $1m month! the US is the problem with massive inflation and loads of government debt and massive deficits. The dollar and US bonds are probably the opportunities particularly bonds 5% soon maybe.
As a rule - market extremes have to be beyond what anyone would have thought possible 10 years ago..
seems like owning commodities, consumer staple and Ag stocks would be another beneficiary?
I am thinking direct commodity exposure looks best
Like owning futures of those commodities or something different?
Futures might have high roll costs... so the actual physical commodity if possible... miners are likely subject to rising costs and taxes as well...
Okay I can see how you do that for gold/precious metals, but how on earth are you doing that for food/oil/etc? You have a big garage to store those things? (LOL) Also, how do you go about selling it when you think they have reached their peak?
Farmland is another option
Well the idea is that governments will attmept to raise real wages... so commodities should keep rising until we shift back to favouring capital over labour....
🙌🙌🙌
What about demographics on this one?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3163841/chinas-population-nears-normalised-phase-decline-experts
Older population, eats less, population expected to flatline or even decline from 2025. How do you quantify this trend on how it would impact food inflation?
Really interesting perspective. I don't think Western economies have enough room for Wage Inflation before demand destruction kicks in and I'm not sure Western Wage inflation saves demand destruction (a bit circular there). Going to have to rethink bonds now.