18 Comments

Completely agree with you on China. I spent the bulk of my sell side career in China and never came across more confident views about the Chinese economy than when I visited Midtown Manhattan...

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Russell have you done any work on the model portfolio?

Looking forward to it! 😊

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Great presentation. I agree with most of it. The level of hubris of the US political and business elite is striking to me. They think they can take on China and Russia without any serious pain. Good luck with that. It doesn't make me happy - a weakening US makes the world a more uncertain place - but I find it amazing to see that many Americans think that because they have natural resources and the Mississipi river and genetic superiority because they are descending from pioneers (no kidding I have heard them all) they can do stupid things and get away with it, it's never going to matter. I think they win ultimately, but pain and suffering seem unavoidable - already here for many Americans though the very rich are completely in denial about it - and whether it's a good win (US retaining primacy as #1 but in a more multilateral and balanced, dare I say democratic, international order) or a bad win (US empire) is hard to say at this point.

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Your use of the word tight or loose made me think you were describing monetary (M2 or the discount rate) conditions, but as you further explained how it pertained to treatment of the super wealthy made the presentation much clearer to me. The wholesale backing of SVB depositors demonstrated clear evidence that the politicians are being run by the super wealthy and regulations are only used when the regulations work for the desire of those in charge.

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Posted a question here on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/gordonschuecker/status/1643234841515773952

About what China does with its close to $1T/y in trade surplus and what if it managed to accumulate and weaponize it?

Thx for any thoughts!!

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founding

Weird to see this article posted on zerohedge

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Interesting. Any view on luxury watch brands as a potential short?

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