I'm not entirely sure the East India Company is a good example Russell, after it imploded (due to the 1857 Rebellion) it was nationalized but the British Raj lasted almost another 100 years.
By that analogy can we expect another 90 years of pax Americana?
Using history as a guide the American empire is far from atypical, even in the heyday of Victorian England living conditions of the working class we're far from ideal, life expectancy was probably higher in the Netherlands or Denmark.
For a while I thought that a Sino-Russian led BRICs type bloc might have a good chance of toppling American hedgemony but after the stalemate in Ukraine, Chinese property problems and teflon-like immunity of US financial assets I've changed my mind.
Perhaps I should write a contrary series: is the US actually winning?
I feel the analogy works. The UK dominated the spice and textile industries- and set tax and tariff rates to their benefit.
US dominates tech industry and set tax and tariff rates to their benefit.
Ireland = treaty port. Dominant miltary etc... the big difference was the UK was always fiscally solvent as an empire until it started falling apart. The US does not look solvent to me as corporate keep so much of the lucre to themselves
Isn't that a case more of US corps not paying taxes but buying money market funds / treasury bills a la Italian style (not paying tax but buying BTPs?)
"The fact of the matter is that government deficits will need to be reduced at some point. With exception of Ireland, the western world continues to spend more than its raises."
"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Still not certain about the new look! Really difficult to think China is winning, certainly in the short term. Looks like a traditional property boom and now bust cycle. Assume a banking issue next. In the long run, whatever that means, China will certainly remain a world power with the USA dominating macro events . What they are unable to do is avoid cycles. Suspect Taiwan looks more and more exposed as China’s economy struggles, a historical diversionary tactic.
Spot on that in the USA unaccountable corporates are running the country.
Strangely China seems willing to do what it takes to make property more affordable and reduce income inequality.... not hard to see why its unpopular with corporates and investors!
Just because markets dont like it does not make it a failed policy....
The eternal political debate between Capitalism and Socialism. China has or is trying both whilst the USA has only really ever tried Capitalism. As you correctly point out this is all about big Politics
Spot on, Russell! Your perspective on Ireland too. The latter being the outcome of the 2008 -12 European debt crisis and Ireland's in particular (you get our corporate taxes, we get paid out on your junk). A sweet deal for a few.
Ireland like every other western economy’s employment is largely driven by SMEs and Government jobs. It’s the tax take that gave us the fiscal surplus, and not to trigger Russell, but his higher taxes now are pay back for all the money he made on Irish Bonds post GFC 🤣🤣
Remember that the Trump election is in strong part a rejection of the status quo. I just watched a Democrat interviewing Trump supporters at a rally and 90% of the conversation was about breaking up corporates and that the US now had oligarchs who were the political donors and the only ones who mattered in the system. Shockingly many of the Trump supporters were pro people like Bernie Sanders.
Whether it’s the The Sound of Freedom hitting #1 in theatres this summer or Oliver Anthony’s Rich Men North of Richmond going viral and hitting #1 on iTunes, there is a strong anti-establishment and anti-corporate movement taking root in the US. I doubt much will come of it in the next couple of years but things will heat up a lot post 2024.
We’re seeing a lot of very unconventional candidates showing up like RFK Jr., Vivek Ramashwamy, and the “establishment” candidates just don’t have a chance. Also remember that a lot of the “establishment” is going to age out in the next 4 years. McConnell, Biden, Feinstein, Pelosi, etc are all in their mid 80s up to their 90s, so a lot of the status quo corporatists are out in the near future thanks to natural attrition.
Declining moral authority for not staying true to the Minsk accords. Who believes anything the West has to say anymore.
Only commercial interests are forever
I'm not entirely sure the East India Company is a good example Russell, after it imploded (due to the 1857 Rebellion) it was nationalized but the British Raj lasted almost another 100 years.
By that analogy can we expect another 90 years of pax Americana?
Using history as a guide the American empire is far from atypical, even in the heyday of Victorian England living conditions of the working class we're far from ideal, life expectancy was probably higher in the Netherlands or Denmark.
For a while I thought that a Sino-Russian led BRICs type bloc might have a good chance of toppling American hedgemony but after the stalemate in Ukraine, Chinese property problems and teflon-like immunity of US financial assets I've changed my mind.
Perhaps I should write a contrary series: is the US actually winning?
I feel the analogy works. The UK dominated the spice and textile industries- and set tax and tariff rates to their benefit.
US dominates tech industry and set tax and tariff rates to their benefit.
Ireland = treaty port. Dominant miltary etc... the big difference was the UK was always fiscally solvent as an empire until it started falling apart. The US does not look solvent to me as corporate keep so much of the lucre to themselves
Isn't that a case more of US corps not paying taxes but buying money market funds / treasury bills a la Italian style (not paying tax but buying BTPs?)
"The fact of the matter is that government deficits will need to be reduced at some point. With exception of Ireland, the western world continues to spend more than its raises."
"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Ernest Hemingway
Thank you for bringing a touch of class!
Still not certain about the new look! Really difficult to think China is winning, certainly in the short term. Looks like a traditional property boom and now bust cycle. Assume a banking issue next. In the long run, whatever that means, China will certainly remain a world power with the USA dominating macro events . What they are unable to do is avoid cycles. Suspect Taiwan looks more and more exposed as China’s economy struggles, a historical diversionary tactic.
Spot on that in the USA unaccountable corporates are running the country.
Strangely China seems willing to do what it takes to make property more affordable and reduce income inequality.... not hard to see why its unpopular with corporates and investors!
Just because markets dont like it does not make it a failed policy....
The eternal political debate between Capitalism and Socialism. China has or is trying both whilst the USA has only really ever tried Capitalism. As you correctly point out this is all about big Politics
Spot on, Russell! Your perspective on Ireland too. The latter being the outcome of the 2008 -12 European debt crisis and Ireland's in particular (you get our corporate taxes, we get paid out on your junk). A sweet deal for a few.
Russell, love your articles and your perspective of attacking topics from different points of view!!!
Ireland is winning 🏆 (in the short term at least).
Ireland like every other western economy’s employment is largely driven by SMEs and Government jobs. It’s the tax take that gave us the fiscal surplus, and not to trigger Russell, but his higher taxes now are pay back for all the money he made on Irish Bonds post GFC 🤣🤣
Remember that the Trump election is in strong part a rejection of the status quo. I just watched a Democrat interviewing Trump supporters at a rally and 90% of the conversation was about breaking up corporates and that the US now had oligarchs who were the political donors and the only ones who mattered in the system. Shockingly many of the Trump supporters were pro people like Bernie Sanders.
Whether it’s the The Sound of Freedom hitting #1 in theatres this summer or Oliver Anthony’s Rich Men North of Richmond going viral and hitting #1 on iTunes, there is a strong anti-establishment and anti-corporate movement taking root in the US. I doubt much will come of it in the next couple of years but things will heat up a lot post 2024.
We’re seeing a lot of very unconventional candidates showing up like RFK Jr., Vivek Ramashwamy, and the “establishment” candidates just don’t have a chance. Also remember that a lot of the “establishment” is going to age out in the next 4 years. McConnell, Biden, Feinstein, Pelosi, etc are all in their mid 80s up to their 90s, so a lot of the status quo corporatists are out in the near future thanks to natural attrition.