The problem is that it is all politics - so things can change... just as China and the US achieve detente in the 1970s against all expectations... but the logic is compelling
"Why are you buying treasuries when the US government shows no ability to collect the revenues to service it?"
Why, to keep the reserve currency-Ponzi racket going because we're afraid of the consequences if it deconstructs. And especially since we know about the FED put, that will back any threats to their fiat racket.
I say it with a satirical accent, but your question is astute, perceptive, and lays all the cards on the table.
The FED is like a Godfather mafia that has intermarried with the Euro and the Japanese fiat mafias. If you think about it, the US never left occupying Japan or Germany since WW11.
We're at the stage of the racket falling apart at an accelerated rate.
I want to thank Russell Clark for sharing his observations and thoughts with us, and look forward to more of Russell's posts.
I'm not entirely sure what to make of this. It's true that China wants to protect its reputation and ensure the stability of the RMB as a long-term store of value, especially for the "sanctioned and non-aligned" world (I should trademark that term!)
However all the available evidence seems to suggest that China has succeed in euthanizing animal spirits - in a high-income country this might be OK (ie: Japan) but China is still in its totality a relatively poor country (upper-middle income by the IMF/WB definition)
Look at the 30 year bond yields here, it's plain that Japan is on the brink or already has escaped deflation, while China risks sinking into deflation - especially since a crossover in 30 year bond yields (CN: 2.4% JP: 1.7%) appears imminent
I sort of think that China created its own property bubble to offset the bursting of the bubble in the west. Now they are bursting this bubble - but without affecting the rest of the economy… so GDP growth is okay, and investment is okay, but financial assets are doing very poorly.
By choosing not to devalue, China has deflation, and Japan has inflation. If they chose to devalue, the bond markets in China and Japan would be doing the reverse of what we are seeing. Deflation is the hall mark of a strong currency
God it is refreshing to subscribe to and read a newsletter written by someone who has a brain and uses it to think.
The problem is that it is all politics - so things can change... just as China and the US achieve detente in the 1970s against all expectations... but the logic is compelling
Best post for a while.
"Why are you buying treasuries when the US government shows no ability to collect the revenues to service it?"
Why, to keep the reserve currency-Ponzi racket going because we're afraid of the consequences if it deconstructs. And especially since we know about the FED put, that will back any threats to their fiat racket.
I say it with a satirical accent, but your question is astute, perceptive, and lays all the cards on the table.
The FED is like a Godfather mafia that has intermarried with the Euro and the Japanese fiat mafias. If you think about it, the US never left occupying Japan or Germany since WW11.
We're at the stage of the racket falling apart at an accelerated rate.
I want to thank Russell Clark for sharing his observations and thoughts with us, and look forward to more of Russell's posts.
Great article!
I'm not entirely sure what to make of this. It's true that China wants to protect its reputation and ensure the stability of the RMB as a long-term store of value, especially for the "sanctioned and non-aligned" world (I should trademark that term!)
However all the available evidence seems to suggest that China has succeed in euthanizing animal spirits - in a high-income country this might be OK (ie: Japan) but China is still in its totality a relatively poor country (upper-middle income by the IMF/WB definition)
Look at the 30 year bond yields here, it's plain that Japan is on the brink or already has escaped deflation, while China risks sinking into deflation - especially since a crossover in 30 year bond yields (CN: 2.4% JP: 1.7%) appears imminent
vs 5 years ago pre-covid (CN: 3.95% JP: 0.55%)
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/30-year-bond-yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/30-year-bond-yield
I sort of think that China created its own property bubble to offset the bursting of the bubble in the west. Now they are bursting this bubble - but without affecting the rest of the economy… so GDP growth is okay, and investment is okay, but financial assets are doing very poorly.
By choosing not to devalue, China has deflation, and Japan has inflation. If they chose to devalue, the bond markets in China and Japan would be doing the reverse of what we are seeing. Deflation is the hall mark of a strong currency
Exactly. Deflation is great for safe bonds, but terrible for high yield and equities.
Similarly the stellar performance of US & Japanese equities can be interpreted as a policy decision to inflate away the debt overhang
That's why I think it's very dangerous to short the S&P500 or Nikkei, in local currency terms it's very unlikely they'll ever go backwards.