9 Comments

The Great Wall Chart - could not it just indicate shortage of commodities - Cu, Al and Semiconductors? And same for other Auto CPI prints?

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One of my arguments is that socialist or pro-labour policies actually encourage shortages.... so the Chinese led shortages are not cyclical but secular

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Vehicle costs (eg. monthly car payments) aren't a factor for every household. If your car(s) are paid off, car prices don't affect you (maybe repair prices but that is relatively minor compared to food and energy). Am I missing something?

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I am focusing on the cost of production being a factor in wage inflation. If your policies are focused on labour over capital this should cause food and auto inflation. I think China is 6 years into this policy, and now via food and auto inflation is is transferring inflation globally

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So if you were to overlay employment of those factories would that indicate anything more? My thought was, if you have a job at least you can maybe find a way to keep buying food even with prices rising, but if employment starts to go down wouldnt food inflation then be the killer? Or am i thinking to simplistically?

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My thought is that rising returns to labour - ie rising wages drives inflation.. and thats how you generate a wage price spiral. However, we have yet to see any meaningful monetary policy to reduce inflation yet. But my observation is China is already far down this route - and via food and autos is transferring inflation globally...

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Interesting i look forward to more!

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Partly wages but in large part is inflation created in China and also exported because of shortgage of energy and also most of other commodities.

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Excellent analysis, as someone who is in Labor, it seems the policy winds are changing but... I often wonder if that means we should then see private unionization rates rise in the coming decades or the polices for too long have made the labor act in the US too weak to help jump start that middle class bloom again.

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