Curious what your thoughts are on the role corporate consolidation/concentration role in these themes you laid out so well here.
Anti-trust policy seems like a latent driverunderlying all of this - the levels of concentration in the 1910-1930s is similar today as well as a lot of the pre-FDR politics (e.g., Andrew Mellon spending a decade as Treasury sec while still running his business empire).
Consolidated corporate power is implicit in your pro-capital description but it also helps define the wage and globalization trends in another way. Do you think it is possible that the reason inflationary periods have been more "equal" in terms of income is that they coincide with a stronger anti-trust policy and therefore a flatter pay distribution relative the levels of concentration like we've seen over the last 30-40yrs with a much wider dispersion in income levels?
Great write-up, Russell. Only question I have with higher bond yields longer term - how is it sustainable? As the saying goes, compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe and at 100+% of GDP and high deficit spending (I completely agree austerity is a losing proposition politically) it will compound to the next hundred per cent very quickly
Russell, thanks - great write up.
Curious what your thoughts are on the role corporate consolidation/concentration role in these themes you laid out so well here.
Anti-trust policy seems like a latent driverunderlying all of this - the levels of concentration in the 1910-1930s is similar today as well as a lot of the pre-FDR politics (e.g., Andrew Mellon spending a decade as Treasury sec while still running his business empire).
Consolidated corporate power is implicit in your pro-capital description but it also helps define the wage and globalization trends in another way. Do you think it is possible that the reason inflationary periods have been more "equal" in terms of income is that they coincide with a stronger anti-trust policy and therefore a flatter pay distribution relative the levels of concentration like we've seen over the last 30-40yrs with a much wider dispersion in income levels?
Would love to get your perspective. Thanks again
Thanks
When do we see capital controls returning in a G7 country?
I fear that macro trades that make sense (ie: short Gilts, long Swiss Franc or gold) may not work out due to this risk
Case in point: Russia in Feb 2022 that wasn't fatal but hurt EM managers
Great write-up, Russell. Only question I have with higher bond yields longer term - how is it sustainable? As the saying goes, compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe and at 100+% of GDP and high deficit spending (I completely agree austerity is a losing proposition politically) it will compound to the next hundred per cent very quickly