I’ve been really interested in this piece of your research, but I struggled to find a true expression of the thinking as a trade, so I have actually gone down the route of a physical investment in creche and pre-school services.
Thank you for sharing your views, Russell. Your views are in stark contrast to mine - I see little reason for birth rates to rise in the US AND, furthermore, I can't imagine any scenario, within the next 10 years, the causes a baby boom similar to the post war boom after 1945.
I do appreciate your optimism, but the US government is so dysfunctional, I can't foresee any circumstances where the parties reach across the aisle and agree to provide family support to young voters. The US is broke today - we already have entitlements that can't be provided, without massive inflation.
I wish I wasn't so pessimistic, but I have seen zero progress on the issue of unrealistic elder entitlements AND collapsing birth rates, but the problems are well known and have been since the Reagan/Thatcher era. So, I see no motivating factors that will alter the trend.
My hope is there exists a unknown unknown that shocks the system into a reset. I hate it, but we need a wake up call, an immediate crisis. Unfortunately, demographic emergencies move at the pace of glaciers, it seems, and no one notices.
In the UK, if Labor win, it will be the first election since 1970 that the baby boomers have backed the wrong party. What I am saying is that swing voters that determine elections has changed, and the political changes that will cause are only just beginning to be felt and understood. During the Great Depression population growth was also very slow... things can change quickly.
USA Retrospective cohort study of 869 079, found that women with COVID-19 giving birth had higher rates of mortality, preeclampsia, thrombotic events, intubation, ICU admission, and preterm birth, than women without COVID-19. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.20456
I’ve been really interested in this piece of your research, but I struggled to find a true expression of the thinking as a trade, so I have actually gone down the route of a physical investment in creche and pre-school services.
Me too... and so has private equity. I think HCA looks interesting as a play. But it feeds into a short TLT trade best
Thank you for sharing your views, Russell. Your views are in stark contrast to mine - I see little reason for birth rates to rise in the US AND, furthermore, I can't imagine any scenario, within the next 10 years, the causes a baby boom similar to the post war boom after 1945.
I do appreciate your optimism, but the US government is so dysfunctional, I can't foresee any circumstances where the parties reach across the aisle and agree to provide family support to young voters. The US is broke today - we already have entitlements that can't be provided, without massive inflation.
I wish I wasn't so pessimistic, but I have seen zero progress on the issue of unrealistic elder entitlements AND collapsing birth rates, but the problems are well known and have been since the Reagan/Thatcher era. So, I see no motivating factors that will alter the trend.
My hope is there exists a unknown unknown that shocks the system into a reset. I hate it, but we need a wake up call, an immediate crisis. Unfortunately, demographic emergencies move at the pace of glaciers, it seems, and no one notices.
In the UK, if Labor win, it will be the first election since 1970 that the baby boomers have backed the wrong party. What I am saying is that swing voters that determine elections has changed, and the political changes that will cause are only just beginning to be felt and understood. During the Great Depression population growth was also very slow... things can change quickly.
alas, I fear you may be correct here, despite the fact that I agree with Russell's generic thesis of pro-labor policies making a comeback
Wouldn't want to be the couple planning for a baby these days.
Regardless how rare the incidence is, the ability of SARS CoV-2 to make "a bad looking pizza" of the placenta is discouraging to put it mildly. https://www.the-scientist.com/doctors-investigate-several-stillbirths-among-moms-with-covid-19-68703.
USA Retrospective cohort study of 869 079, found that women with COVID-19 giving birth had higher rates of mortality, preeclampsia, thrombotic events, intubation, ICU admission, and preterm birth, than women without COVID-19. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.20456
Nah. Pass.
Out of Nashville. Yep - I’m overweight US Health systems already 😣
Sorry what is HCA? I played Short TLT from 122 down to 94 ish and reallocated that into Gold. Can’t find an entry into TLT now.
HCA US - big US hospital chain. Owns portland in UK and does the entire IVF chain