This isn't at all what Coreweave stock price tells me. Instead it tells me 3 things:
- tiny float
- large short interest (no borrow available even at 100%+ rates)
- investment bankers management who know how to game the system
The same thing played out in Canadian weed stocks, Beyond Meat, etc.
If investors believed the Coreweave story, they would have raised a lot more with the IPO (the fact they decided to proceed during that time is a tell also). We shall see which is more right soon enough when the lock up expires in September (my expectation - sales by management followed by equity offering).
So far as Palantir is concerned - the story with it and other megacaps is largely about index funds and passive bid. With palantir (and in fact Tesla before it) it is especially apparent when you mark the date it was included in the S&P on the stock chart.
Great note Russell. The perspective that "there is nothing new under the sun" (which was stated a couple thousand years ago in the bible) is always contested during times like these, with the argument being that it is "different this time". Who knows really, and to your point below, it doesn't matter until it matters. That said, having navigated as a manager through the internet bubble, the GFC, the European Debt Crisis, COVID, and the 2022 collapse of digital asset class, underlying market structure is every bit as fragile today as it was at those and other major turning points. The market is a shell game, with all eyes on the S&P... meanwhile, we are being pickpocketed by fragility. It's always the same.
Commodities like platinum and palladium are starting to melt-up as happened right before the 2000 bear spread to the whole market. It looks like dotcom to me, with 2020 an echo of 1998 in commodities. The cycle is stretched because of the stimulus. USA ran balanced budgets in the late 1990s instead of the worst deficits outside of wartime.
This isn't at all what Coreweave stock price tells me. Instead it tells me 3 things:
- tiny float
- large short interest (no borrow available even at 100%+ rates)
- investment bankers management who know how to game the system
The same thing played out in Canadian weed stocks, Beyond Meat, etc.
If investors believed the Coreweave story, they would have raised a lot more with the IPO (the fact they decided to proceed during that time is a tell also). We shall see which is more right soon enough when the lock up expires in September (my expectation - sales by management followed by equity offering).
So far as Palantir is concerned - the story with it and other megacaps is largely about index funds and passive bid. With palantir (and in fact Tesla before it) it is especially apparent when you mark the date it was included in the S&P on the stock chart.
Great note Russell. The perspective that "there is nothing new under the sun" (which was stated a couple thousand years ago in the bible) is always contested during times like these, with the argument being that it is "different this time". Who knows really, and to your point below, it doesn't matter until it matters. That said, having navigated as a manager through the internet bubble, the GFC, the European Debt Crisis, COVID, and the 2022 collapse of digital asset class, underlying market structure is every bit as fragile today as it was at those and other major turning points. The market is a shell game, with all eyes on the S&P... meanwhile, we are being pickpocketed by fragility. It's always the same.
Commodities like platinum and palladium are starting to melt-up as happened right before the 2000 bear spread to the whole market. It looks like dotcom to me, with 2020 an echo of 1998 in commodities. The cycle is stretched because of the stimulus. USA ran balanced budgets in the late 1990s instead of the worst deficits outside of wartime.
Indeed - all true. But only matters when it matters....