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Good work

Just one question Russell - how will governments finance themselves if long-term bond yields spike and TLT sells off?

If the bond market as a source of financing is closed, then they will be forced to run primary surpluses. Wouldn't that be very contractionary for demand and hence disinflationary?

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Hi Russell, curious why you think there won't be a recession? I mostly agree with your view on the political shift and think there is no real appetite for a tough and/or long recession despite all the current rhetoric, so I think the Fed and the Republicans (and the Tories in the UK) will quickly reverse course if/when the going gets really tough, but even if it's more for optics than anything else, don't you think there is a decent chance they break something while pretending to be tough guys (and gals)?

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This would mean USD or DXY will surge to strength again. GBP and EUR denominated entries into US equities could get a free currency carry?

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