Hi Russell, do you (have you) read Russell Napier's thesis on the coming inflation (and financial repression)? His basis is somewhat different, but his conclusions and expectations rhyme with yours pretty well. I think his thoughts on the bond market may be particularly interesting, i.e. that government bonds cannot be allowed to rise past certain (pretty low) levels and that it is corporate debt and equity markets that will have to take the hit. I have yet to come across a good counterargument to that (I mean, it's basic math, really) apart from "inflation is going back to zero" (which does not seem likely at all to me)
Of all your recent work this presentation links it all together for me and ties in to food inflation, the bonds story, secular inflation, China favouring labour, and currency devaluation. Your Japan analysis will be interesting...
However Russell, I suppose that in order to materialize this change in policy... a big financial crisis may happen first? one that one push governments out the statis ounce and for all you know? what your thoughs on that?
PS: BTW, if a crisis due come, seems a good oportunitiy to buy the stuff that will be on structural shortage: food producers, fertilizer producers, copper miners, oil producers, nat gas producers, etc;
Such awesome analysis
Hi Russell, do you (have you) read Russell Napier's thesis on the coming inflation (and financial repression)? His basis is somewhat different, but his conclusions and expectations rhyme with yours pretty well. I think his thoughts on the bond market may be particularly interesting, i.e. that government bonds cannot be allowed to rise past certain (pretty low) levels and that it is corporate debt and equity markets that will have to take the hit. I have yet to come across a good counterargument to that (I mean, it's basic math, really) apart from "inflation is going back to zero" (which does not seem likely at all to me)
Of all your recent work this presentation links it all together for me and ties in to food inflation, the bonds story, secular inflation, China favouring labour, and currency devaluation. Your Japan analysis will be interesting...
Excellent interpreation.
seems reasonable...
However Russell, I suppose that in order to materialize this change in policy... a big financial crisis may happen first? one that one push governments out the statis ounce and for all you know? what your thoughs on that?
PS: BTW, if a crisis due come, seems a good oportunitiy to buy the stuff that will be on structural shortage: food producers, fertilizer producers, copper miners, oil producers, nat gas producers, etc;