Thank you for this topic. You did a great job linking up the food chain to the price of food, very well done indeed.
On a separate note, some say fertilizer price will up as grain prices go up. Like you said, China lacks good farmland. With climate issues, drought and /or extreme rain can disrupt farmers' incentive to use more fertilizer to boost crop yield despite crop price inflation. Hence, investing in fertilizer companies must correlate global weather pattern change and commodity price ... and many other variables together. However, investing in the crop commodity itself is a different beast. This is just my macro thinking. Do you see anything wrong here? Thanks
Macro wise no problem. Industry wise, there are some issues - where as a lot of supply came on line during the last fertiliser boom back in 2000's. China is also looking to curb fertiliser use, as excessive use has contaminated some land. Against that, Russia and Belarus have a large market share in some fertilisers, so that is supply that could disappear potentially... I would do a lot of industry work before getting to involved.
Currently travelling in India and south Asia, from what I can see, consumption of staple food commodities have dropped because consumption has dropped, so the prices are in a downward trend. Luxury items like pork, beef etc all gone up.
The sunspot stuff in interesting... but whenever I look into it, I just realise that we know so little about the sun, and its cycles are probably longer than human life has been around, so I can't bring myself to commit capital to it... when it combines with a political cycles that is inflationary anyway, then I get excited
Think global warming might push food inflation higher in years to come. In short term feels like companies are not increasing price. £7 for a pint is probably enough temporarily therefore markets might get fooled by the next few months data. You will be right eventually .
Thank you for this topic. You did a great job linking up the food chain to the price of food, very well done indeed.
On a separate note, some say fertilizer price will up as grain prices go up. Like you said, China lacks good farmland. With climate issues, drought and /or extreme rain can disrupt farmers' incentive to use more fertilizer to boost crop yield despite crop price inflation. Hence, investing in fertilizer companies must correlate global weather pattern change and commodity price ... and many other variables together. However, investing in the crop commodity itself is a different beast. This is just my macro thinking. Do you see anything wrong here? Thanks
Macro wise no problem. Industry wise, there are some issues - where as a lot of supply came on line during the last fertiliser boom back in 2000's. China is also looking to curb fertiliser use, as excessive use has contaminated some land. Against that, Russia and Belarus have a large market share in some fertilisers, so that is supply that could disappear potentially... I would do a lot of industry work before getting to involved.
Currently travelling in India and south Asia, from what I can see, consumption of staple food commodities have dropped because consumption has dropped, so the prices are in a downward trend. Luxury items like pork, beef etc all gone up.
The current sunspot cycle will peak soon and then turn down into 2030's. Mini ice age.
The sunspot stuff in interesting... but whenever I look into it, I just realise that we know so little about the sun, and its cycles are probably longer than human life has been around, so I can't bring myself to commit capital to it... when it combines with a political cycles that is inflationary anyway, then I get excited
Think global warming might push food inflation higher in years to come. In short term feels like companies are not increasing price. £7 for a pint is probably enough temporarily therefore markets might get fooled by the next few months data. You will be right eventually .
Feels like water issues in the two most populous nations points to higher food prices long term...