Capital Flows and Asset Markets
Capital Flows and Asset Markets
DECEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIO
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DECEMBER NEWSLETTER AND PORTFOLIO

JGBs are saying US bonds are wrong
11

In hindsight, I was plainly too keen to add to the core trade of GLD/TLT at the beginning of the month. The correction at that point had only moved to 50 DMA. December has seen it reverse further back to the 200 DMA.

The problem has been on the TLT side of the trade. Bonds everywhere have rallied at expectations of rate cuts have been priced in. The US 2 year yield shows clearly the change in view.

As discussed in a previous post, energy markets are really the key here.

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Capital Flows and Asset Markets
Capital Flows and Asset Markets
Explaining how capital flows and asset markets work