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The Blind Squirrel's avatar

Love me a bit of Omaha myth busting! But trust him to land the only commodity trade that has worked for the past 2 years!

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Pablo Hill's avatar

Berkshire foray into Japan came about for two reason: 1) some place to put money to work, Japanese equity has been cheap for a long time & recently became more shareholder friendly-diviends & buybacks. With the amount of money that Berkshire needed to move and to avoid SEC regulations with regards to disclosure & ownership GAAP reporting, it maid sense to jump overseas. 2) To take advantage of low debt. Japan has & will continue to have the lowest nominal rates in the world, a fact not missed of Buffett, he has even spoken publicly about finicaing the purchase of the five trading house with yen debt & how it has worked out.

Berkshire-Buffett specifically-does not have great track records investing in commodities directly see ConocoPhillips, natural gas bonds, his exit from ExxonMobil, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, etc. It appears to me that he-Berkshire Hathaway-has learn to partner up with so people who specialize in commodities and let them do the heavy work.

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Russell Clark's avatar

Don't really disagree... still more balance.sheet driven that growth driven . investing

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Romlev's avatar

Political bet and commodity = berkshire energy until now ?

I believe to remember that he said some times ago that competition from PE titan has lead to a decrease in vulture deal for him especially since permanent capital has progressed

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Russell Clark's avatar

Apple and the Trading Houses would be too big for private equity to buy - but Buffett seems to be running the same strategies.

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mendo's avatar

what do you mean by "private equitization game"?

have to look at Berkshire is playing the same private equitization game as the rest of the market.

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Russell Clark's avatar

Apple and Trading house both have the buy back to reduce equity and increase value to remaining share holders. Both are reliant on credit market staying open for ever, and maintain competitive positions

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Alan's avatar

Does Buffett also see Berkshire as a kind of diversified trading house and the Japanese investments are to secure partnerships for more global Berkshire activity. There were hints in this year’s letter about Berkshire serving as a key financing entity during downturns and in taking on massive national scale projects like green energy and national logistics. He explicitly mentions that Berkshire has only invested domestically. Maybe in preparation to go international?

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Russell Clark's avatar

Could be - but I just see them as trades.

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DeepBlue's avatar

So are you sizing them up as having good short potential if your assessment of the pro labour shift and US bear market plays out, Russell?

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Russell Clark's avatar

Could do... Yen seems very weak to me... and strong yen is not good for trading houses

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Global Macro Village's avatar

I thought there was a catch in those trades. Maybe you know better. Buffett borrowed in JPY from the local banks to purchase these trading house shares.. So what was his real bet? Not sure if he felt comfortable on the yield spreads' (borrowing vs earnings or dividend or whatever he based it on) stability or earnings growth of the firms or bet agaisnt JPY was his thought process.

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Russell Clark's avatar

He also did that - although I think he sold yen bonds rather than borrow from banks. But he could have done just that rather than buy the trading houses if it was a bet on weak yen

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