Pro-labour shifts when they occur between countries tend to be revolutionary. If a pro-labour shift is an attack on American hegemony, then GLD/TLT works too
Russell if the 1970s were accepted as the start of a pro capital shift and the beginnings of pax Americana how come the USD was so weak during that period?
Agree that a structural reduction in US hegemony will be bearish TLT and bullish GLD
But a lot of this hinges on Ukraine: what happens if the result is reinforced US control over the EU and Japan? Will Chinese and Russian selling be enough to push USD structurally lower against GBP EUR or JPY? Looking at the GBP chart the big pound bear market only started in the 1930s.
How do you think Buffett's purchases of the Japanese Sogo Shoshas (Itochu, Mitsui etc) fits in the pro-capital vs pro-labour framework? Is it an implicit bet on persistently high commodity prices? Yen appreciation? Or just plan old deep value
How do you express this idea in the FX markets?
Russell if the 1970s were accepted as the start of a pro capital shift and the beginnings of pax Americana how come the USD was so weak during that period?
Agree that a structural reduction in US hegemony will be bearish TLT and bullish GLD
But a lot of this hinges on Ukraine: what happens if the result is reinforced US control over the EU and Japan? Will Chinese and Russian selling be enough to push USD structurally lower against GBP EUR or JPY? Looking at the GBP chart the big pound bear market only started in the 1930s.
How do you think Buffett's purchases of the Japanese Sogo Shoshas (Itochu, Mitsui etc) fits in the pro-capital vs pro-labour framework? Is it an implicit bet on persistently high commodity prices? Yen appreciation? Or just plan old deep value