What would that do to the price of BTC and gold if the USA debt to GDP went to 85%? Isn't the whole narrative behind both is the USA in a unsolvable debt spiral right? And those two are the only life raft from a life of poverty and despair.
But of course, I will believe the 85% debt to GDP when I see it! :)
Spending by the Department of Education decreased by $102 billion (or 50 percent), largely because spending for the Education Stabilization Fund and student loans was lower during the first nine months of 2025 than in the same period last year. In June 2024, the agency recorded an increase of $74 billion in the estimated costs of outstanding student loans. No such costs were recorded in 2025.
long term yields will matter to investors and if inflation heats up watch for 10y and 30y and we will have a Tru(mp)ss moment very soon, IMHO
turkey tried hard way to lower interest rates by 'executive order' and firing CB chair and backfired tremendously and that i s why turks buy gold/BTC to protect their wealth, something the US will have to learn the hard way, long gold/silver/miners...
The USD was weak in the 70s but went through the roof in the 80s, but in your scenario, it would weaken less this time than in the 70s, no? That said, I would assume that if the metrics improve like you outline, Trump or whoever follows him will put through a massive tax cut so that a significant deficit remains to keep the USD from strengthening a lot.
What would that do to the price of BTC and gold if the USA debt to GDP went to 85%? Isn't the whole narrative behind both is the USA in a unsolvable debt spiral right? And those two are the only life raft from a life of poverty and despair.
But of course, I will believe the 85% debt to GDP when I see it! :)
70s saw debt to GDP collapse and gold surge.... inflation is a typical answer to.a.debt crisis
Main reason for falling outlays:
Spending by the Department of Education decreased by $102 billion (or 50 percent), largely because spending for the Education Stabilization Fund and student loans was lower during the first nine months of 2025 than in the same period last year. In June 2024, the agency recorded an increase of $74 billion in the estimated costs of outstanding student loans. No such costs were recorded in 2025.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61303/html
Excellent work - I knew someone would know where to look
long term yields will matter to investors and if inflation heats up watch for 10y and 30y and we will have a Tru(mp)ss moment very soon, IMHO
turkey tried hard way to lower interest rates by 'executive order' and firing CB chair and backfired tremendously and that i s why turks buy gold/BTC to protect their wealth, something the US will have to learn the hard way, long gold/silver/miners...
Gold still looks good to me.
Thanks for a well thought out counter argument to the ongoing end of world analyses we continue to see. I ascribe a 25% probability to this outcome
Not well thought out... more simple extrapolation... let's see how it plays out
These days that counts as well thought out😂
I suspect the thought process was very similar! Trump is definitely a "change agent"
it is the 4th turning after all. somebody needs to force the change
The USD was weak in the 70s but went through the roof in the 80s, but in your scenario, it would weaken less this time than in the 70s, no? That said, I would assume that if the metrics improve like you outline, Trump or whoever follows him will put through a massive tax cut so that a significant deficit remains to keep the USD from strengthening a lot.
Really depends on whether the tariff regime really drives investment into the US or not....