Thanks for both of the pieces today Russell. Fascinating takes and completely contrary to the mainstream narrative. So glad to hear another strong and credible voice calling out the BS in private asset markets!
The fed will have to work out pronto how to stop large deposits leaving banks to buy treasuries that in many instances yield similar to bank deposits but with no risk. Either more QE or a large rate cut. Either way once deposits leave they will be slow to return l
I would suggest looking a layer deeper than deposits (2023) or lending (2008). I suggest the deeper level triggers are interest rate risk (2023) and collateral risk (2008). When one of these risk triggers become a problem, combined w leverage risk, the result is liquidity risk--the common event of every crisis.
Thanks for reminding us all that PE and VC is dogshit
I needed that in this crazy market moment
Surely that is deflationary rather than inflationary. If banks have less capital to lend the economy will most likely shrink.
Thanks for both of the pieces today Russell. Fascinating takes and completely contrary to the mainstream narrative. So glad to hear another strong and credible voice calling out the BS in private asset markets!
Russell, you had previously liked japanese banks. Still?
And that is a totally different set up in Japan as opposed to current US, right?
The fed will have to work out pronto how to stop large deposits leaving banks to buy treasuries that in many instances yield similar to bank deposits but with no risk. Either more QE or a large rate cut. Either way once deposits leave they will be slow to return l
I would suggest looking a layer deeper than deposits (2023) or lending (2008). I suggest the deeper level triggers are interest rate risk (2023) and collateral risk (2008). When one of these risk triggers become a problem, combined w leverage risk, the result is liquidity risk--the common event of every crisis.