Russia won’t invade Europe. It’s a hoax. It simply doesn’t have resources for that. But the opposite doesn’t hold true. So depending on your view of that, we might be at the foothills, rather than peak.
Another scenario is Europe having to take care of itself completely, without the US. Then we are also far from peak.
Rationally, i agree with you. But as a rational person i can also clearly see that a lot of what has happened was irrational:)
Not sure why Europe would invade Russia - but if that was the plan, then the defence stocks are fine as they would need much more capacity than they have now. I was just looking at Europe getting to parity to be able to support Ukraine - and they seem to have enough of the raw chemicals which surprised me.
They have enough at a price - classic market. Last calculation I’ve seen was 3-5x to Russian prices. Depending on your assumptions about economy of scale. Still better than current 10x .
Rationally it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever because conflict would go nuclear. And if Europe was serious about actual war one would be maxed out on anything nuclear related.
But then again this assumes competence and rationality. That belief of mine was deeply shaken in 2023 offensive.
Russia won’t invade Europe. It’s a hoax. It simply doesn’t have resources for that. But the opposite doesn’t hold true. So depending on your view of that, we might be at the foothills, rather than peak.
Another scenario is Europe having to take care of itself completely, without the US. Then we are also far from peak.
Rationally, i agree with you. But as a rational person i can also clearly see that a lot of what has happened was irrational:)
Not sure why Europe would invade Russia - but if that was the plan, then the defence stocks are fine as they would need much more capacity than they have now. I was just looking at Europe getting to parity to be able to support Ukraine - and they seem to have enough of the raw chemicals which surprised me.
They have enough at a price - classic market. Last calculation I’ve seen was 3-5x to Russian prices. Depending on your assumptions about economy of scale. Still better than current 10x .
Rationally it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever because conflict would go nuclear. And if Europe was serious about actual war one would be maxed out on anything nuclear related.
But then again this assumes competence and rationality. That belief of mine was deeply shaken in 2023 offensive.